How many umbrellas are sold in a city when it rains?

Clarifying Questions

1. We are talking about the complete monsoon period
2. We are considering the complete Delhi NCR region as a city
3. Any type or range of umbrella is accepted

 Creating the Equation


**Number of umbrellas sold=**

Number of people who want to have an umbrella* availability of umbrellas in the market


 Solving


Finding the number of people who are in Delhi NCR:-

1. The population of the India is 1.2 billion
2. The urban population consists of 30%, with Delhi NCR being 15% of it.
3. The population of Delhi NCR is = 1.2 *30% * 15% =  54 million.
4. Assuming each has a family of 4. Number of family = 54/4 = **13.5 million**
5. Assuming around 50% of the family have umbrellas, raincoats, etc from the previous monsoon season with them safe.
6. Number of families = **6.5 million**

Now divide this into income basis:-

|  | Likeliness to buy a Raincoat or some other stuff other than umbrella | Likeliness to buy  umbrella | Average number of umbrellas in a family | Total Number of umbrellas demand |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| High Income(20%) = 1.3 million  | 60% | 40% = 0.52million | 3 | 1.56 million |
| Upper Middle Class(20%) = 1.3 million | 50% | 50% = 0.65 million | 2.5 | 1.62 million |
| Lower Middle Class(30%) = 1.95 million | 30% | 70% = 1.36 million | 2 | 2.72 million |
| Lower Class(30%) = 1.95 million  | 10% | 90% = 1.75 million | 1.5 | 2.62 million |
| Total |  |  |  | 8.52 million |

Assuming 20% of these people buy more than 1 time in the complete season, due to the reason of umbrella brake or theft of umbrella, etc.

And assuming 90% of the time umbrellas are present when a person goes to buy an umbrella


 **Total number of umbrellas sold :- (8.52 million + 0.2*8.52)*0.9 = 9.2 million**


 Sanity Check


For the sanity check, if there are 6.5  million in Delhi who don't have anything to save from rain. then on average, a family has 1.5 umbrellas which are acceptable.