Estimate the Number of Orders delivered by Swiggy per hour in India

Clarifying Questions


1. Is there any particular region in India we are seeing it for:- **No complete India**
2. When we say orders we mean the successful orders for food and not for either service of swiggy like groceries etc.:- **Yes**
3. Are we seeing any particular platform from which the order is made:- **We can think of smartphones**
4. Since the usage of swiggy varies from day to day, I would like to find it on an average day instance, is it ok:- **Yes Go ahead**


 Creating the Equation


**Number of chats=**

(Number of users of Swiggy * Number of orders per day)/(24)

 Solving


Finding the number of people who have an account on WhatsApp

1. The population of India is 1.2 billion
2. The distribution of the population in urban and rural areas is 30:70.
3. The area where swiggy is active is 80% **(290 million)** of the urban population and 10% **(84 million)** of the rural area. Swiggy will access only areas where the people will have access to the internet
4. Penetration of smartphones is 70% in India and with that market share of swiggy 50%. Assuming it to be constant all over India, potential customers of swiggy  = 375 million * 0.7 * 0.5 **= 131 million**
5. Since this number is completely for the individual people, but generally they all will be having a meal with family = 131 /4 = **32 million**

The likeliness to order the food depends on the availability and Income as well.

Now divide this number of people into the below 3 segments:-

**Aggressive users** are those who order 2 meals per week (0.3) and will have a higher concentration of high-income people compared to others.

**Active users** are those who order 2 meals biweekly (0.1) and will have a higher concentration of lower-middle-class people compared to others

**Passive users** are those who order 2 meals per month (0.07) and will have a higher concentration of lower-class people compared to others.

|  | Aggressive users | Active Users | Passive Users | Total |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| High Class (20%) = 6.4 million | 50% = 3.2 * 0.3 = 0.96 million | 30% = 1.92 * 0.1 = 0.19 million | 20% = 1.3 * 0.07 = 0.09 million  | 1.24 million orders |
| Upper Middle Class (30%) = 9.6 milllion | 40% = 3.84 * 0.3 = 1.15 million   | 40% = 3.83 * 0.1 = 0.4 million | 20%  = 1.92 * 0.07 =0.14 million | 1.69 million orders |
| Lower Middle Class (30%) = 9.6 million | 10% = 0.96 * 0.3 = 0.3 million | 40%  = 0.38 * 0.1 = 0.04 million | 50% = 4.8  * 0.07 =0.33 million | 0.67 million orders |
| Lower Class (20%) = 6.4 million | 0% | 30% = 0.19 million | 70% =0.09 million | 0.28 million orders |
| Total |  |  |  | 3.9 million orders |

**The total number of potential orders per hour is 3.9/24 = 0.16 million orders.**

Acceptance of orders by the restaurant (50%) = **0.08 million orders (Assumption) = 80K orders**

 **The total number of orders delivered per hour is 80,000 orders**


 Sanity Check


For the sanity check, Swiggy operates in 30% of India with a market share of 50%. If on average one family orders for 1 time in a week it makes and with an acceptance of 50% from the restaurant side =1.2/4 *0.3 *0.5 *1/7 /24/2 = 133,000 orders per hour which is acceptable