If you are the CEO of Google, what will be your roadmap for the next 5 years?

Clarifications:

What are Google's goals for next 5 years – Revenue, User acquisition, Retention, Solving a new problem? – Revenue

The key revenue driver  – Google Ads (runs across products)

Any recent changes/ What is not going so well today? – Growth rate of Ad $ has been flattening for last 1 year.

About Google:

Vision is to make world’s information accessible to all

Strength:

Has a history of launching several successful consumer oriented, high usage products

Technology – use existing/ create new technologies

Cash rich, take a long term approach to a problem

Weakness:

Reliance on Ads for $$

Has not been successful with segments that need an operational setup or a compliance setup in local markets – cab booking, food delivery, movie booking, money transfer            

Fake information – search, Youtube, mails

Goal: Google’s Roadmap for next 5 years

Possible strategies:

International expansion for Search, Youtube  via localization, local content

Launch new products where Google does not exist today – such as International money transfer, movie booking

Acquire consumer product companies that excel in areas Google dosen’t – food delivery, cab booking, movie ticketing, international money transfer

Address current problems in existing Google products – fake content

Look at green fields as next bets – energy conservation, B2B

Evaluation :

Evaluation criteria: Revenue, Strategic alignment, Complexity

International expansion for search, youtube  via localization, local content

Focus increasing market share where it is currently low. $$ opportunity is high, It is in strategic alignment with what Google does. It is however complex, given consumers in those local markets already use them and the products are good.

Launch new products – International money transfer, movie ticketing

This is a new revenue stream with high global opportunity. It is in alignment with what Google already does, e.g. Google Pay in India, integrating end to end movie booking with search. Setting up this business grounds up is complex – Money transfer required global compliance know how. Each country/ region has it own regulations. Movie ticket booking may require local support, however setups may have to be country by country. Also, it may require contracts with Theatre groups.

Acquire consumer product companies that excel in areas Google dosen’t – International money transfer, movie ticketing

High on revenue and Strategic alignment. Complexity is starting off is lower. However, Google will have to start maintaining compliance, operations setups, which it has not been history doing.

Address current problems in existing products – fake content

It is a complex problem, given Google’s team has already been working on it for so long. It is incremental and a separate company focus may give some/ may not be significant jump. Strategic alignment to what Google already does is high.

Look at green fields – energy conservation, B2B

These can be potential areas to invest on for long term, however may not be key revenue drivers. Strategic alignment is low. Complexity is high.

Recommendation:

Acquire consumer product companies that excel in areas Google dosen’t – such as international money transfer and movie booking (there could be more such areas such as food delivery).

Acquisition will help reduce complexity of building the required compliance, operational setup and getting the requirement partner agreements. It can be a high revenue driver. Just a word caution that for Google it will be a new area moving from technology driven approach to compliance+technology driven approach with a support angle.