Estimate the number of cars sold through cars24 since the first lockdown of COVID19 (March 2020).

This is an estimation problem:

Step 1 - Ask clarifying questions

1) Is this meant for only US specific sales or global sales?

2) Do we have to keep any specific type of cars in mind e.g. sedan, hatchback, electric cars etc.

3) Any price range of cars to be kept in mind?

4) New cars vs used cars?

5) Personal vs commercial purchases

Step 2- Create a master equation:

Assumption- We will track only US based sales and sale of only new personal vehicles

Master equation-  

Cars sold by cars24/year=Number of new personal cars sold in US X % of personal cars sold online x % of market share of cars24

Market for new personal cars sold in US = # of households in US x % of households looking to buy a new car x % of households who can afford a new car

# of households in US = Population of US /average size of household

Population of US= 330 Mn/ avg 3 people in a household

# of households in US = 110 Mn

Assuming a household needs an annual income of >70K to purchase a new car. 35% of household would fall in this category

Also, a new car would be bought only once in 7 years by a household or only 14% of this population would be in the market for a new car every year.

Market for  new personal cars sold in US = 110 Mn*35%*14% = 5.39 Mn. This number looks ok since overall auto sales in US in 17Mn/year

Assuming % of cars sold online is ~5% and cars 24 marker share will be about 10%

Cars sold by cars24/year = 5.39Mn* 5% *10% = 2695 cars/year.

Its has been ~18 months since Covid started hence cars sold by Cars24 will be 2695*1.5= ~4042 cars