What is the size of the European Shoe market?

Question

What is the size of the European Shoe market?

Asked at Google over a year ago

2.7k views

Estimation category

Asked at

2.7k views

How to answer Estimation questions

Interview Guide

Top Estimation interview questions

Calculate the number of queries answered by Google per second.45 answers | 78.5k views
How do you decide how many cash registers you need for a new Walmart store?33 answers | 39.4k views
How many dentists are there in New York?33 answers | 36.7k views
See Estimation PM Interview Questions

Invite members
Invite by email

Add another

janeyan2004 · Answer 1 · 2021-05-14T00:11:37+0000

First clarifying question about whether this for a particular type of shoe or overall shoe market? Does specialized sport or use (dancing) shoe count?

Second, does this include second hand shoe sales? or just new shoe sales?

Third, clarify the market scope, assuming it's all the countries in Europe.

If the question is about new shoe, for any type sold on the market, then the question becomes the calculation of population size for different age groups, and a break down of the shoe categories, then the multiply the population at each group with number of shoes on average owned by people in that category.

For popluation age group:

Age 0-1: shoes are not really for walking, but for fun, and baby grows fast, so assuming some babies don't have shoes, and some may have a couple of pairs. Let's average it out to make it 1 pair per person.

Age 1-5: preschool kids, primarily wears 1-2 pair per year for most day use, one rain boots, one pair of sandles.

Age 6-18: school kids, kids wear shoes pretty past, 2-3 pairs a year, one rain boot and one pair of sandles, for colder area, one pair snow shoes;

Age 19-22: college: Men usually wear sport shoes, Women will have different type of sandles, running shoes, Men have average 1-2 pairs a year, Women buy more, 3-4 pairs a year.

Age 23-65: People buy more shoes for functions, activities, dress shoes. Men: 3-4 pairs per year, women: 5-10 pairs per year.

Age 66-80: People buy less shoes, back to 1-2 pairs per year.

Overall population around 800 million, assuming equal distribution across all age groups:

Age 0-1: 10 mil

Age 1-5: 50 mil

Age 6-18: 120 mil

Age 19-22: 50 mil

Age 23-65: 400 mil

Age 66-80: 160 mil

Which gives the shoe market size per year:

10*1 + 50*4 + 120*6 + 25*2 + 25*4 + 200*3 + 200*7 + 160*1 = 3240 mil pair of shoes per year.

These are mostly mainline shoes, not including speciality shoes, and taken average people shoe purchases, also not counting second hand market.

Given 800 mil overall population, and this number roughly gives 4 pairs per person per year on average. It seems reasonable, including shoes for 4 seasons.