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Estimate the sanitizer market in the USA.

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Clarification: Im assuming you're talking about hand sanitiser here (there are other varities of sanitisers like  surface etc)

Assuming we are talk liquid sanitisers here not UV based etc.

Assuming we are talk about this from the perspective of Covid or otherwise in BAU state

US population : 330 mil

Liquid used per application - 2 ml per use

Cost of sanitiser - 80% regular + 20% premium 

Regular sanitiser = $10 per  L

Premium   Sanitiser = $20 per  L 

Blended cost of $12 per L

Assuming an avg life span of 80 year

 

You can break down sanitiser users basis frequency of usage 

 

User type% shareFrequencyPopulationExample
Don't use3%--Babies 
Use infrequently10%1.5330Elderly folks who aren't stepping out
Use regularly80%2.5330Children/adults sanitising post contact with external surfaces/people
Power users7%5330hospital, staff, delivery person

above totals up to 825 Million ML daily, which at 12$ per L with a 10% wastage factor(10% of bottle doesnt get used/thrown) is about 10.9 Million dollar, multiply it by 365 which is 4000 million approx so 4 billion dollars 

Considering Covid really shot up usage (the above trends represent that) in 2020 then we should discount the 2  months when covid wasn't around - it approx be 16% of total however people would still be using sanitiser but lower frequency, so let's discount by 8%.

Which is approx 3.68 billion

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Things you did well

  • Asking questions to narrow down the scope.
  • Equations: I think you applied simple and easy to understand equation and didn't think to complicated for a really vague question. I like your approach.
  • Covid seasonality: It was good idea that you thought about the seasonality of covid. 
Areas of improvement
  • What is the timeframe for the estimation? Month, Quarter, Year? Don't assume it is one year.
  • Break down: I don't think you should group the usage by specific age group. There could be adults that never use hand sanitizers and also hard to know if elderly group is not using it frequently.
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