How would you estimate how many people are watching Youtube in India right now?

Clarifying Questions

1. Is there any particular region in India we are targeting:- **No complete India**
2. YouTube can be watched on Smartphones, laptops, and smart Tv. Which platform are we targeting :- **Let's go for smart phones**
3. Are we accounting for any particular genre or youtube shorts, live streams, etc:- **No in common**
4. Since the usage of youtube varies from moment to moment, I would  like to find it on an average day instance, is it ok:- **Yes Go ahead**
5. There could be both online as well as offline users. **Lets us go for online users**

 Creating the Equation

**Number of chats=**

(Number of users of Youtube * Number of videos per person/day)/(24*60*60)

 Solving

Finding the number of people who have an account on WhatsApp

1. The population of India is 1.2 billion
2. Internet penetration is **70% = 840 million.** It is considered with the distribution of urban(40%) and rural (60%) population. Assuming urban people have access to the internet and half of the rural population has also access to the internet making it **70%**

|  | 4 smart phones per family | 3 smart phones per family | 2 smart phones per family | 1 smart phone per family | Total |
| High Class (20%) = 42 million | 95% = 40 million * 4 = 160 million | 5% = 2 million * 3 = 6 million | 0% | 0% | 166 million |
| Upper Middle Class (30%) =63 million | 80% = 50 million * 4 = 200 million | 15% = 10 million * 3 = 30 million | 5% = 3 million * 2 = 6 million | 0% | 236 million |
| Lower Middle Class (30%) = 63 million | 10% = 6.3 million * 4 =25 million  | 10% = 6.3 million * 3 = 20 million | 40% = 25 million * 2 = 50 million | 30% = 19 million * 1 = 19 million | 114 million |
| Lower Class (20%) = 42 million | 0% | 10% = 4.2 million * 3 = 12.5 million | 20% =8.4 million * 2 = 17 million | 50% = 21 million * 1 = 21 million | 51 million  |
| Total |  |  |  |  | 567 million |

The market share of Youtube compared to other OTT platforms is **80%** (Assumption)

Therefore the total number of youtube users is **454 million**

Now divide this number of people into the below 4 segments:-

1. Teenagers (0-14) →**18%**
2. Young Adults (15-24) →**11%**
3. Working Professionals (25-55) → **38%**
4. Senior Citizens (56-80+) → **33%**

Assuming all these segments are evenly spread and the average life expectancy to be 80 years.

**Aggressive users** are those who watch at least 5 videos in a day and will have a higher concentration of working professionals, and young adults compared to teenagers and senior citizens

**Active users** are those who watch 1-2 videos in a day and will have a higher concentration of teenagers, and working professionals compared to young adults and senior citizens

**Active users** are those who watch 4 videos in a week (0.6 in a day) and will have a higher concentration of senior citizens compared to other groups.

|  | Aggressive Users (5 videos) | Active Users (1.5 videos) | Passive users (0.6 videos) | Total |
| Teenagers = 82 million | 30% = 25 * 5 = 125 million videos | 50% = 41 * 1.5 = 67.5 million videos | 20% = 16 *0.6 = 9.6 million videos | 202.1 million videos |
| Young Adults = 50 million | 60% = 30 * 5 = 150 million videos | 35% = 17.5 * 1.5 = 26.25 million videos | 5% = 2.5 * 0.6 = 1.5 million videos | 177.75 million videos |
| Working Professionals = 173 million | 50% = 86.5 * 5 = 432.5 million videos | 35% = 60.55 * 1.5 = 90.825 million videos | 15% = 25.95 * 0.6 = 15.57 million videos | 458 million videos |
| Senior Citizens = 149 million | 10% = 14.9 * 5 = 74.5 million videos | 40% =  59.6 * 1.5 = 89.4 million videos | 50% =  74.5 * 0.6 = 44.7 million videos | 208.6 million videos |
| Total |  |  |  | 1.05 billion videos |

A total number of videos seen in a day = **1.05 billion videos**

A total number of videos seen in an hour is 1.05 billion videos /24 **= 50 million videos**

A total number of videos seen in a minute is 50 million / 60 **= 834k videos**

A total number of videos seen in a second is 834k/60 = **14k videos**

 **Assuming one video is seen on one mobile device by 1 person. The total number of people watching youtube right now is *14k people***

 Sanity Check

For the sanity check, let's check it from India's population. Assuming on average one person watches 2 youtube videos in a day. therefore = 2.4 billion in a day which makes **23.1k videos per second.**

I would take a slightly different approach.

 

Clarify time if day. Right now could be morning, daytime, evening. Is it YT.com or any content embedded from YT in other sites too? people could be adults, kids, elders.

 

Approach. Assume in India there are 14B people. Assume 1/3 are babies  and 1/6 elders. Two groups that don't watch YT. 1/3+1/6 = 1/2 That leaves 700M as possible YT audience.

We also know that top video providers are Netglix, YouTube, Amazon, the rest. Assume equal distribution. That makes is 700M / 4 = 175 M if every adult is streaming YT

 

Then factor in day time. For morning it's .25 (some people get morning news on YT, updates, infotainment), .5 for daytime (streaming or recording content fir work and school), .75 for evening entertainment.

 

Assume this is daytime. 175M * .5 = 88M watching YT provided there is a device per person, no major connectivity issues and no global or National events.