Estimate the aggregate number of miles joggers run in Central Park NY City in a year.

For clarity, I have kept my assumptions in "Italics" and the calculations in "Bold".

To calculate the number of miles joggers run in Central Park NY City in a year, I will consider only the residents of NY City i.e., not include the tourists coming to NY City to stay for few days/weeks and coming to Central Park to jog.

Not considering the folks who come there to do light exercises or walk or engage in any kind of activities other than jogging.

Also, considering the folks who regularly go to Central Park to jog, not the ones who come just once a month or so.

Now, the population of NY City is 7.9M ~ 8M

Let’s consider a uniform distribution of the population among the age groups of 0-80years (considering life expectancy of 80 years)

Assuming children below 15 years don’t really go for jogging and older adults above the age of 65 years don’t really jog

Therefore, the population (15years-65years) who can be considered to jog = 8M*5/8 = 5M

Since, the Central Park is somewhat located in the middle of NY City, I am assuming that most of the joggers in the NY City would turn up to jog in the Central Park regularly.

There are the power joggers who run marathons and all, then there are the mid-level/active joggers and the regular joggers.

Recently read in one of the articles, that NY City marathon runners in the age group of 20years-30 years has reached 10K. Population in the age group of 20years-30years = 5M*1/5 = 1M

Therefore, power joggers in the age group of 20years-30years = 10K/1M = 1% of the population of 20years-30years.

Extrapolating the 1% of power joggers to age groups of 15 years-55years and assuming 0% of folks in the age group of 55years-65years are power joggers.

Power joggers to be considered = 1% of (4/5)*5M = 0.01*4 = 0.04M or 40000.

Assuming 0.5% of people in the age group of 15 years-55 years are mid-level/active joggers and 0.25% of folks in the age group of 55 years-65years are mid-level/active joggers.

Active joggers to be considered = 0.5% of (4/5)*5M + 0.25% of (1/5)*5M = 0.005*4 + 0.0025 = 0.002 + 0.0025 = 0.0045M = 4500.

Assuming 0.5% of people in the age group of 15 years-55 years are regular joggers and 0.25% of folks in the age group of 55 years-65years are regular joggers.

Regular joggers to be considered = 0.5% of (4/5)*5M + 0.25% of (1/5)*5M = 0.005*4 + 0.0025 = 0.002 + 0.0025 = 0.0045M = 4500.

Lets assume that power joggers run 15 miles a day, active joggers jog around 10 miles a day and regular joggers jog around 5 miles a day

Therefore, total miles joggers run in a day = Power joggers * Miles run in a day + Active joggers * Miles run in a day + Regular joggers * Miles run in a day

= 40,000*15 + 4500*10 + 4500*10 = 600,000 + 45000 + 45000 = 600,000 + 90000 = 690,000 miles or ~700,000 miles or 0.7M miles a day.

Joggers might be unwell, go for vacations, and body needs to always recover, I am assuming that people jog 5 days a week for estimation purpose.

Therefore, total miles jogged in a week in Central Park = 0.7M*5 = 3.5M miles

There are 52 weeks in a year. So, total miles jogged in a year in Central Park = 3.5 * 52 = 182 million miles