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How would you go about finding out the number of red cars in China?

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# of Red Cars in China = # Cars in China x % Cars that are Red = 250 * 10% = 25 million.

# Cars = # Households in China x Avg # Cars per Household = 500 * 0.5 = 250 mil

# Households in China = # People in China / Avg # People per Household = 1.5 billion / 3 people = 500 mil

Avg # Cars per Household = Avg # Cars Urban x % Urban + Avg # Cars Rural x % Rural = 1 * 50% + 0 * 50% = 0.50 cars per hosuehold

% Red = ~5% in US, but red = lucky color in China, so assume ~10%

Note: This assumption is likely lower than actual, as it has not considered enterprise owned cars in China (e.g., rental cars, trucks, etc).

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To validate this, you could either:

1) Process car registration data in China to determine # red vehicles. This assumes the color of the vehicle is included in the registration details. Note: You would need to add some kind of adjustment for illegal / unregistered vehicles.

2) Set up highway video cameras in a set of representative locations (urban & rural) to detect number of red cars, and total number of cars. Accumulate enough data to approximate general % of red cars vs total cars. Collect data on number of registered vehicles in China and add in adjustment for illegal / unregistered vehicles.

 

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