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Estimate the number of hotels in NYC.

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Step 1: To understand the question with the interviewer to ensure we are solving for what is asked for

We want to estimate the total number of Hotels located in NYC. What would be considered as hotels - Large and Small boutiques? Business hotels, Motels? (Clarify that Air Bnb will not be counted as a Hotel for this calculation)

 

Step 2: Break down the problem into smaller parts

  1. Total number of Visitors to NYC Annualy (To normalize any trends)
  2. Average length of stay per visitor
  3. Average number of guests per hotel room
  4. Average number of rooms per hotel
 
Step 3: Make Logical assumptions and Hypothetical Estimates. Come up with a Equation which will calculate the total number of hotels
 
Total Number of Hotels = Total Rooms/Avg Rooms Per hotel
 
Total Rooms needed per year = (Total Visitors * Avg Stay)/Avg guests per room
 
Total Rooms Per day = Total rooms per year/365
 
Lets Assume for NYC:
Vistors per year = 50 million
Average Stay per visitor = 3 days/nights
Average number of guests per room = 2
All hotels (Small, Large, Business) serve same number of room
Average number of rooms per hotel ~ 100 
 
 
Total Rooms Needed per year = (50 * 3)/2 = 75 million
 
Total Rooms per day = 75 million /365 ~ 205,480

Total Number of hotels ~ 205,480/ 100 ~ 2055 hotels

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Hey there, 

so first of all I would like to ask the following questions

  • including hostels and/or AirBnBs? - Lets assume no
  • only the NYC city or Metropolitan area? - Lets, only NYC City
Approach
# Hotel = [# Tourists] / [# Beds per Hotel]  
 
# Tourists = ( [Leisure Traveller] + [Business Traveller] ) /2
Leisure Traveller  = [Ppl in the City] x [Ratio of Tourists]
Business Traveller = [Ppl in the City] x [white color worker] x [Ratio of Tourists]
# Beds per Hotel =  [# Floor] x [# Rooms per Floor] x [# Beds per Room]
 
Ppl in the City = 8 Mio  
I  know that there are around 8M ppl Living in NYC City
Ratio of Tourists = every 10th person is a tourist (w/o covid) 
I would have guessed that every 10th person you meet in NYC is a tourist (days where there is no covid)
white color worker = 75% are white color worker
(In NYC you have 3/4 of every person working as a white color worker I would assume)
 
Leisure Traveller = 8M / 10 = 800k 
Business Traveller = 8M x 75% / 10 = 600k
# Tourists = (800k + 600k)  / 2 = 700k
Since we took the same tourist ratio of Business and Leisure Travellers we have to still split the overall number of tourists by 2
 
# Floors = 5 Floors
I think on average there are 5 floors in every hotel
# Rooms per Floor = 6 Rooms
I would say based on my own exp that there are around 6 rooms per floor on an average hotel
# Beds per Room = 2 Beds
There are always 2 beds per room
# Beds per Hotel = 5 x 6 x 2 = 60 Beds
 
# Hotel = 700k / 60 Beds = 11k
Taken together, I would argue that there are 11k hotels in New York City. 
 
The numbers in this equation where I have the lowest confidence, is probably the average number of tourists that are in New York on a given day. 
 
If you take that 1/3 of people live together in households you arrive at around 2.6M households in New York.
That means that hotels would only make up around 2% of all the apartments that are in New York. 
Which seems to be pretty low. 
So that could still be accurate. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Things you did well

  • good clarifying questions 
  • stated the approach and equation: makes it easier for IVR to follow 
  • stated assumptions and reasoning 
  • you conducted a sanity check 
Areas of improvement 
  • calculation of business travels seems confusing. You may assume the ratio of business travelers to tourists as 10% which essentially makes business travelers 1 in 100 of the total NYC population. This would bring the travelers as 880k 
  • mention other user segments that may stay at the hotel - you can claim them to be negligible compared to the tourist and business traveler population
    • people staying at the hotel during their home repair 
    • Out of city students who study in NYC but their dorms are not yet open 
    • people who book hotel rooms for parties 
  • mention the assumption that hotel suites with more than 2 beds are negligible or make assumptions to factor in the suites and calculate the average no. of beds per room
  • State the assumed hotel utilization - it is unrealistic that hotel occupancy is 100% all year 
  • you may also factor in hotel renovations and add that % (assume 1%) to the total hotels in NYC
  • When sanity check leads to a red flag, and if IVR allows, make changes to your numbers and revalidate them.
Overall, a good answer but could be fine-tuned by adding assumptions
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