Estimate the sale of colored TVs in Flipkart during diwali.

Thanks for clarifications. So to summarize, I've to estimate the units of new colored TVs that were sold in B2C channel last year on flipkart during Diwali. I'd like to follow a top down approach here as I'm not quite aware of the supply side for this.

This is the equation I'm going to follow

No of new colored TVs sold on flipkart last year during diwali : No of color TVs sold last year india * Market share of flipkart * Contribution of Diwali to Flipkart annual TV sales

1) No of new color TVs sold last year in India = (No of households in India * % of households with a TV * % of households with a color TV * avg no of color TVs per household* (1/lifetime of a color TV) * Contribution of new TVs to overall TV sales

No of households = Population/average household size = 1.2B/4 = 300M

% of households with TV : Urban rural divide in India is 3:7. In rural, I would like to assume one in 2 households have a TV, and in Urban every household has a TV. So that means 65%. For calculation purpose, I'd like to round it off to 2/3

% of households with Color TV among those who have TV = This should be close to 95% but for calculation purpose I'd like to assume 100%. Similarly refurbished TV is a very nascent market in India, so it's safe to assume contribution of new TV sales to overall TV sales is 100%

Similarly I'm believe avg no of color TVs per household among those who have color TVs should be quite close to 1. So keeping it as 1

Lifetime of a color TV is close to 10 years

Hence, No of color TVs sold last year in India = 300M * 2/3 * 1/10 = 20M

2) Market share of Flipkart in color TV sales = Contribution of online to TV sales * Market share of Flipkart in online TV sales

Contribution of Online to TV sales : Again considering urban rural divide of 3:7 and online contribution of 60% in urban and 30% in rural for this category, we arrive at 40%

Flipkart's market share in Online TV sales : Amazon and Flipkart are the major players and rest all like Tata Cliq, Ajio, Paytm contribute too little in this category. I'm assuming a market share of 50% in online TV sales

Thus, Market share of Flipkart in color TV = 40% * 50% = 20%

3) Contribution of Diwali to Flipkart annual TV sales

There are 5 Major festive events/sale events : Christmas to New Year, Pongal/Sankranti, Ganesh Chaturti, Big Billion Day(which coincides with Dussehra), Diwali.

But Diwali is bigger than other festive sales. So I'm assuming 30%

No of new colored TVs sold on flipkart last year during diwali = 20M * 20% * 30% = 1.2M or 12 lakhs

Just to double check : This means one in 250 households in India bought a TV last year during Diwali, which seems reasonable

Nachiket Vaidya · Answer 2 · 2021-09-13T13:07:33+0000

Interviewee:- Just to double confirm Do we want to calculate the net sales revenue from coloured TVs from all the brands from sell during Diwali during particular year for flipkart .. ?

Interviewer :- Thats correct
Interviewee :-
Below are my assumptions -

1) Population of India = 140 Crores ~35 crore house holds ( assuming 4 people per household on an average)
2) No of Households with TV = 30% of total households
3) Lets assume for on an average TV lasts for 10 years hence only 3% households buy any colour TV in a given year
4) Lets assume flipkart has ~35% market share in online sales and ecommerce sales correspond to around 60% of digital sales ... Flipkart would contribute to around 21% of total sales in an year
5) Lets assume Diwali contributes to 60% of the overall yearly sales for TV then this number would become 12.6% of total sales

This makes the number = 3%*35 Crore *12.6% ~14 Lac TV sets
Assuming each TV set is around 15k the total sales becomes 15k*14 Lac ~2000 Crore per INR