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Estimate the number of iPads sold in Europe in 2019.

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Interesting! I would like to start by clarifying a couple of questions:

  1. What countries do you include in your definition of Europe? I assume you do not include Russia - most of it located in Asia - and that you're not limiting it to the EU, but all countries in Europe. I believe that would be about 500 Million residents.
  2. You can sell an iPad directly from Apple or sell it between individuals or in marketplaces as a second-hand device. I assume we're only including direct sales from Apple.

Ok, now that we clarified that, let's get started with the estimation. I assume tablets are purchased for the household and used mostly as a shared device.

Nr of iPads sold in Europe in 2019 = Nr of households in Europe in 2019 * % of households purchasing a tablet in 2019 * iPad market share in 2019

Nr of households in Europe in 2019 = 500 M / ~3 people per household = 167 M

I would break it down by family income level because the iPad is a premium device, and tablet purchase is also correlated with income level.

Income band% of households purchasing a tablet in 2019iPad market share in 2019% of families purchasing an iPad in 2019
Top 20%50%70%35%
Middle 60%30%50%15%
Bottom 20%20%30%6%
Total  17.5% + 4.5% +1.2% = 23.2%

Nr of iPads sold in Europe in 2019 = 167 M * 23.2% = 38 Million

This number seems a bit high to me. I think there are a few assumptions I would revise.

  • I could be overestimating Apple's market share of the European market given that Android has a much stronger presence in terms of smart phones. People like keeping devices in the same platform, so Apple's market share of tablets in Europe is probably significantly lower.
  • The second aspect I would do more research on is the % of households purchasing an iPad in 2019. I believe the refresh rate of tablets is significantly lower than smart phones. This could result in a lower estimation.
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To calculate the number of ipads sold in Europe in 2019, I would look at the following parameters:

Europe's population - 750M

% of people buying ipads - 20%

Apple's share in Europe - 30%

Replacement cycle - 3 years

No. of iPads sold = [(Europe's population) X (% of people buying ipads) X (Apple's share in Europe)] / (Replacement Cycle)

= (750M X  0.2 X 0.3) / 3

= 15 M

15M units were sold in 2019 in Europe.
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Hey there, by "% of people buying ipads", did you mean "% of people buying tablets"? 

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