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Interesting! I would like to start by clarifying a couple of questions:
- What countries do you include in your definition of Europe? I assume you do not include Russia - most of it located in Asia - and that you're not limiting it to the EU, but all countries in Europe. I believe that would be about 500 Million residents.
- You can sell an iPad directly from Apple or sell it between individuals or in marketplaces as a second-hand device. I assume we're only including direct sales from Apple.
Ok, now that we clarified that, let's get started with the estimation. I assume tablets are purchased for the household and used mostly as a shared device.
Nr of iPads sold in Europe in 2019 = Nr of households in Europe in 2019 * % of households purchasing a tablet in 2019 * iPad market share in 2019
Nr of households in Europe in 2019 = 500 M / ~3 people per household = 167 M
I would break it down by family income level because the iPad is a premium device, and tablet purchase is also correlated with income level.
Income band | % of households purchasing a tablet in 2019 | iPad market share in 2019 | % of families purchasing an iPad in 2019 |
Top 20% | 50% | 70% | 35% |
Middle 60% | 30% | 50% | 15% |
Bottom 20% | 20% | 30% | 6% |
Total | 17.5% + 4.5% +1.2% = 23.2% |
Nr of iPads sold in Europe in 2019 = 167 M * 23.2% = 38 Million
This number seems a bit high to me. I think there are a few assumptions I would revise.
- I could be overestimating Apple's market share of the European market given that Android has a much stronger presence in terms of smart phones. People like keeping devices in the same platform, so Apple's market share of tablets in Europe is probably significantly lower.
- The second aspect I would do more research on is the % of households purchasing an iPad in 2019. I believe the refresh rate of tablets is significantly lower than smart phones. This could result in a lower estimation.
Europe's population - 750M
% of people buying ipads - 20%
Apple's share in Europe - 30%
Replacement cycle - 3 years
No. of iPads sold = [(Europe's population) X (% of people buying ipads) X (Apple's share in Europe)] / (Replacement Cycle)
= (750M X 0.2 X 0.3) / 3
= 15 M
15M units were sold in 2019 in Europe.
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