Estimate the number of Uber rides.

hi, i see everyone making assumptions without any backup for them. for instance - "Assuming the target audience which might use online cab services is 60% which makes it 6M." 

now this might be alright but i believe we should use the following approach, any feedback is app

# uber rides = # people * %internet/smartphone * %on-demand cab * %Uber market share * #rides or trips/day 

then we can split # people based on age, this gives us an idea of % private vehicle ownership or can help with better assumptions), average # trips per day (income split in % on-demand cab, avg routine based on income), overall leading to a better estimate 

Clarifying questions

1. The number of rides in Delhi/NCR.
2. The ride count on any normal day
3. Assuming that an Uber ride means the successful completion of a trip.
4. Ride type will include all cab types, auto and bike.
5. Uber Ride will pertain only to transport verticle of the company and not delivery.
6. Uber rides booked from all platforms (Android, Ios and website) 

1. Total population of Delhi/NCR - 70 Million
2. Internet penetration - 65% (approx 45 Million)
3. Uber users - 30% of the total population (approx 10 Million)
4. Break down the population based on user types - Working professionals (40%, 4 Million), Students (20%, 2 Million), Stay at home (30%, 3 Million)
5. Average ride per user - Working professional (10 rides/week, 1.4 rides/day), Student (5 rides/week, 0.7 rides/day), Stay at home (2 rides/week, 0.2 rides/day )

Some clarifying questions

• Is this esitmation for india or World wide - Worldwide

  These daily or monthly - Monthly

  Mobile app - any platfom (android or ios) - Estimate for both seperatelt

1. Total Population - 8 billion
2. total population with internet access =  70 % i.e 0.7 *8 = 5.6 billion
3. Let us assume that 90 % of the above internet users actually use mobile phones = 0.9* 5.6 = 5 billion Phone users with internet 
4. But the total population that would be using cabs would around 0.05or 5 % - assumption  = 1.008 billion users who take rides 

Clarifying Assumptions:
considering Location: Tehran
considering rides as successful rides
calculating daily on week days
considering time frame 2023

total population of Tehran: 8M
Define population in 3 group:
poor peaple--> 30%-->0% car-->NO CAR
Middle class Peaple--> 60%-->80% car-->8M*0.6*0.8=3.8M
Rich people--> 10%-->100% car-->8M*0.1*1=0.8M

{{{Total drivers=3.8+0.8=4.6 M

Based on statistics I've herad 60% of Iranian people have car( 8*0.6=4.8 M)
So our estimation is close to the reality}}}.

Middle class: 60% uber driver-->3.8*0.6=2.28 M
Rich: 5% uber driver-->0.8*0.05=0.04 M

TOTAL UBER DRIVERS=2.28+0.04=2.32 M
ACTIVE UBER DRIVERS EACH DAY=2.32*0.3=0.7 M

AVERAGE NUMBERS OF RIDES EACH WEEK DAY=4
TOTAL RIDES EACH DAY=0.7*4=2.8 M
 

 

Ques for interviewer:  any particular location -> Mumbai

Ques for Interviewer: Are we considering all types of uber services like moto and share -> not moto rest all

Ques for Interviewer: any particular day or occassion-> normal weekday
Any particular time -> peak hour

Ques for interviewer: are we estimating number of uber bookings(demand) or number of rides/cabs available -> number of cabs available

 Soln. : consider population of mumbai -> 20 M

lets divide the users according to age group as different age groups have different req. , diff level of tech exp, hence diff freq for usage.

Grp 1: age < 22

users are mostly students , travel via school buses, college buses, drop offs , either live in hostels nearby or use cheaper mode of transportation such as public transport.

Population % -> 25% as India's , especially Mumbai's pouplation is young
assuming % of people in this age group travelling during peak hour through uber/ola is 2%

Grp 2: 22
tech savy people , usually working professionals , this group consists of the most users for uber/ola
population: 50%
assuming 60% of these people work out of which 75% work from office hence require transportation to reach there.
now mumbai has an immense network of public transport So people travelling through :  

Local trains : 75%, busses : 5%, taxis/auto: 5%, office shuttles : 1%, private vehicles: 9% , remaining people take uber/ola : 5%

Grp 3: age > 60

less tech savy , not many are working, travel very less
population : 25% assuming % of people in this age group travelling during peak hour through uber/ola is 0.5%

Calculating:

No. of uber / ola rides book during peak hr. : 0.35 M

Assuming equal mrkt share of uber/ola : 0.175 M uber bookings (demand of uber rides)

Also around 25% booking will get cancelled or demand is not met due to any reason
assuming out of these 25% will travel by moto and 15% will take uber share( running at a capacity of 3 pax in 1 cab)

so 0.175 (1- 0.25 - 0.15*0.67) * 0.75 = 0.081M

So approx 80K uber rides are available in Mumbai.

Clarifying Questions


1. When we say Uber Rides do we man successful rides or also the rides that got canceled or are still on schedule:- **Go for The successful rides**
2. Any particular area we are targeting for the calculation:- **Take the Delhi NCR region**
3. Uber has a lot of offerings like(bikes, autos, sedans, etc). Any particular sector to calculate:- **No in general.**
4. The number of rides may vary from time to time and also on weekdays and weekends. So is it ok to calculate on an average weekday:- **Yes**


 Creating the Equation


**Number of Uber Rides =**

Potential people who take any mode of online travel booking * market share of Uber * Number of rides in a day


 Solving


1. The population of India is 1.2 billion
2. The ratio of the population for Urban and Rural divides to 30:70
3. The 5 Major Metro cities consist of 70% of the Urban population
4. So the Population of Delhi NCR is = 1.2 * 30% * 70% * 20% = **50 Million**

The factors for seeing if someone has their own private mode of traveling or not. Generally, the one those who have a private vehicle won't prefer to go by cabs or public mode of transport unless there is some problem with their vehicles.

The factors that I have considered for online booking are the availability of metro all over, the income of the one, and the likeliness to get offline rickshaws.

There is a higher tendency of booking cabs in the higher income and upper middle class because they would prefer comfort

|  | Have something for private travelling | Having nothing to travel with  | Likeliness to use Any online mode for travel booking who have to nothing to travel with |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| High Class (20%) = 10 million | 90% | 10% = 1 million | 1 million * 90% =0.9 million |
| Upper Middle Class (20%) = 10 million | 80% | 20% = 2 million  | 2 million * 80% = 1.6 million |
| Lower Middle Class (30%) = 15 million | 40% | 60% = 9 million | 9 million * 40% = 3.6 million |
| Lower Class (30%) = 15 million | 10% | 90% = 13.5 million | 13.5 million * 10% =1.3 million |
| Total |  |  | 7.4 million |

The market share of uber in Delhi Can be assumed as 45%. Its competitor is Rapido, blue smart, ola, etc. = 45%*7.4 million = **3.33 million.**

Assuming someone who is going through cab has to also choose some mode of transport to come back to home. We can consider 70% of people will be only choosing cab while coming cab because they can get their colleagues or can choose some other mode of transport as well to get back.

So on return, it is 70%*3.33 million = **2.33 million.**


 Total number of uber rides in a day = 3.33 million + 2.33 million = 5.66 million ~ **5.6 million**


 Sanity Check


For the sanity check, let's assume the total number of rides completed by an uber in a day is 35 rides.

though it will vary with the type of vehicle but let's assume it on an average of all.

So the total number of uber Vehicles in the Delhi NCR is 5.6 million/35 = 160,000, and it seems to be in an acceptable range.

 

1. Clarifying Questions

   1. Which location are we talking about -> lets take for India

   2. Uber have few business proposition→ rental, outstation and uber ride. Which one we are talking about→ uber ride

   3. Uber ride has different offering  → go, sedan, xl→ lets take all

   4. What time period we are looking at → daily

   5. Reframing the questions→ estimate the number of uber on demand rides in india on daily basis

   6. One ride will be defined as person booking a ride → getting in → reaching a destination 

   7. How i am thinking is uber is predominantly present in metros and few IT cities bangalore , hyderabad, pune and ahmedabad 

   8. For the sake of discussion I assume that 80% of ubers business come from top 8 cities  and 20% from remaining cities

   9. Cities with 1Cr+ population → delhi, mumbai , chennai, kolkata, bangalore, hyderabad, pune, ahmedabad

   10. Lets assume a citi like bangalore population 15million

2. Catalog what you know

   1. Uber is a two sided marketplace → consumer and taxi driver

   2. Uber and ola has equal share in ride hailing → 50%

   3. How i am trying to arrive at this number is estimate the number of uber or ola vehicles in the city and look at number of rides they can offer 

   4. Number of cars registered with uber * no of hours of operation* no of rides per hour

   5.  

3. Computation

   1. Smartphone users → 70% → 15*70%-> 10.5 → 10 million

   2. 10 million 

      1. Excluding 18 below and 60+ → 30 years dont use → 7 million

         1. Elite → 5Cr + not target → chauffeur driven – 5%

         2. Upper→ 15%

         3. Middle  → 30%

         4. Lower → 30% → use public transport , auto ,bike

      2. Target segment → 7* 45%=3.15== 3 million

   3. Segment further into user groups

      1. Power users → 7 days a week -10%

      2. Daily users → 5 times a weeks- 20%

      3. Moderate → 2 times a week-30%

      4. Casual users –1 time a months -20%

      5. Rare users – once a quarter-20%

   4. Average number of daily rides across all user segment/week= 7*0.1+5*0.2+2*0.3+0.25*0.2+0.08*0.2= 2.366

   5. Total number of weekly rides → 2.366*3= 7.098 million/week = 7.098/7 per day= 1 million rides per day

   6. Divide this in 2 for uber and ola = 1/2= 0.5 million

   7. If we want to know for India just extrapolate this number for 8 metros +20% for remaining 

      1. 0.5*8 + (0.5*8)*20%= 4.8 = 5million

4. Sanity check = seems reasonable

Uber rides per what particular time period? - per day

Geo-specific? Take India

Ride type- share or individual? Take individual

Also, by rides, we mean the actual rides or bookings? Take actual rides

 

Population of India - 130 crores

I'm assuming people in rural areas cannot afford cabs

Urban population - 40%

~50 crores

Age 14-75 use cabs.

Average life expectancy ~ 80.

Uniformly distributing across ages - 25 crores across 14 to 75.

Usage -

 

Low (once a month) - 2.5 crores

Medium (once a week) - 12 crores

High (thrice a week) - 5 crores

Very high (5 times a week) - 2.5 crores

 

In a month -

2.5*1 + 12*4 + 5*12 + 2.5*20 = 160 crore rides

 

5 crore rides a day.

Uber eats or Uber Ride: Uber ride

Number of uber rides in a week

Region : US

 

Total subscribers in USA= 100 million per year (last time I checked)

Am I right in considering this number?

 

Breaking usage and assuming use as 40% for low, 40% for med and 20% high

1. Low use: 2 ride per month * 40% =  24 rides/year * 40 million = 960 Million

2. med use: 4 ride per month * 40% = 48 rides /year *40 Million million rides = 1.9 Billion

3. High Use: 8 rides per month * 20% = 96 rides/year * 20 million =   1.9 B

 

Total rides = 1.9 B + 1.9 B+ .9 = 4.7 Billion rides per year

Approach: 

In order to provide the best estiamte, I would work with the interviewer to ensure that I unerstand the scope and nature of the prompt better.

Then I would map out the mathematical steps. And I would make some assumption to fill in the values for some variables. Lastly, I would come up with a final estimate and do a sense check to ensure that my values are accurate.

Clarification questions:

Candidate: Do we want to estimate the number of rides per hour or per day or per week or per month or per year. 

Interviewer: Per year.

Candidate: Do we want to measure ride in the particular city or entire country.

Interviewer: Entire country, USA.

Candidate: Do we want to measure the overall rider such as uberx, uberxl uber pool, uber black, etc. 

Interviewer: Yes

Map out the equation to estimate the number of rides:

Estimate the total number of travels per week per person by age group.

Estimate the total number of uber rider versus personal mode of transportation per week per person by age group

Apply that across the entire population in the country, to get the total number of rides per week.

Convert the weekly number to annual number.

Mathemtical steps along with assumptions:

Step 1:Let us define the age group in 0-15; 15-25; 25-60; 60-80; and define the total travel per week for each group.

0-15: number of invidual travel is zero. because this group would generally travel with the group. Total- 0

15-25: this group primarily includes students; number of travels per week is roud trip commute to educational insutition every day (2*5) plus 1 leisure trips over the weekend. School is close half of the year. So total is 5.5

25-60: this group primiry accounts for working professionals; number of travels per week is round trip commute to workplace every day (2*5) plus 1 leisure trips over the weekend, to meet with collegues, professional network, friends, and family.  Professional take work from home and time-off, 20% of the time. So total is  (10+1)*80%=9.6

60-80: this group primarily contains retired senior citizens; number of travels per week is 1 round trip commute to health care facilities once a week plus 2 lesiure trips per week since they have more free time, unburdened by work. Total- 3

Step 2: Adjust down the travels to accounts for the travels that made by personal transportation (bike, car), public transportation (bus, train), walk and ride share uber and ride share lyft. 

In the absence of the available data on market research or survey, I assume 5% market share for uber.

0-15:  0

15-25:  5.5*5%= 0.2 (30% of the time personal car, bike; 30% public transport like bus; 30% walk; 5% lyft and 5% uber)

25-60:  9.6*5%=0.4 (30% of the time personal car, bike; 30% public transport like bus; 30% walk; 5% lyft and 5% uber)

60-80:  3*1%=0.03 since seniors ride with loved one, I just assign 1% share to uber.

Total= 0.4+0.15+0.03=0.6 per average person per week

Pandemic cut back the travel by one tenth; so it is 0.6*10%=0.06

Step 3: 

There are 300 million people in the country.

So number of rides across the entire country is 300 milliion * 0.06 = 18 MM rides per week.

There are 52 weeks in a year.

So it is 52*18MM= 936 MM rides per year

Step 4:

Sense check the data: let us assume the ride cost $10.

So that is roughly $10B annual revenue for uber.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Questions: 

Asuming only car rides? In the span of one day? 

Equation: #of uber rides each day = population of us that don't have cars % that rides uber each day 

I will take a top down approach 

Assume average life expectancy is 80 years old => college students btw. the age of 18-21 = 5% majority don't have cars 

Frequency = 2 times a month or 24 times a year  

Assume population of us is 300 million 

= 300 mill x 5% students x 24 times a year = 350 mill rides / year =>  1million rides /day 

working people: 21-60 => 50% 

Assume 30% of working people don't have cars  = 15% working people that would use Uber 

Frequency = 10% x 12 times a year (ocassional users)  + 5% x 240 times a year(commute to work) 

= 1.2 + 12 = on average 13 times a year  

= 300 mill x 50% x 13 times/year / 365 days => 4 million rides/day 

total of 5 million rides / day 

 

 

Find number of Uber Rides per day 

 

Clarifying Questions 

 

Are we looking at Indian Market? Or all over the world?  India

Are we looking at all kinds of rides ? Say Cab, Auto or Bike ?  Yes

 

 

Total Population of India : 1.2 B people

 

% urban population where Uber service is available : 30 % 

Total urban population : 0.36 B people

 

Smart Phone Penetration in Urban Areas : 40 % 

People with smart phones in urban areas :  0.144 B

 

Lets say Uber is installed on 50% phones 

Remaining population : 0.072B

 

 

Segments of Users

 

Power Users  - 3 rides per week make up 10 % of the remaining population

Power Users are made up of people who commute to Office/College via Uber + people who do not drive at all or use their own vehicle or they dont have their own vehicle

 

Casual users - 1 ride per week make up 20 % 

Casual Users are made up people who prefer public transport or their own vehicle most often but also use Uber sometimes when they do not want to drive or someone else is using their vehicle

 

Dormant users - 1 ride per month make up 70 %

Dormant Users are once who prefer cheaper modes of transport or drive themselves and use Uber very rarely

 

Equation : 

 

Total Uber rides per day = Rides from (Power + Casual + Dormant Users) 

 

=(0.1 * (3/7) * 0.072 B) + (0.2* (1/7) * 0.072B) + (0.7 * (1/30)*0.072B)

= 0.003 B +  0.002 B + 0.0017 B

= 0.0067 B

 

Total Uber rides per day in India= 6.7 Million 

 

Few clarifying questions that I’ll ask and assumptions taken-

Total number of rides internationally or in a country or in a city? Here I’ll calculate total number of rides in a city like Delhi NCR which includes Delhi and its suburbs.

I’ll consider rides taken by consumer and not consider rides part of uber eats business

I am considering only intra city rides

I’ll estimate the daily rides.

I’ll restrict the scope to any working day.

 

Here, I’ll find out the different users and ways people use Uber rides and try to find out the approximate number of rides taken for different use cases.

Following are the major users of Uber –

Traveling to and fro from Airport

Office Goers

Professionals attending an event or meeting

Family/Individuals going out for shopping/eating out or meeting other

 

Now I’ll estimate the total number of users, the percentage of them using cars and rides being taken in different use cases.

I’ll use the formula:

Total number of Target Group * Percentage of users preferring cars * Percentage of users using Taxi/Ride sharing *Uber market share in that segment.

 

Now let’s consider the different use cases:

Travelling to and fro from Airport

Total number of travellers – Approximately 100 thousand persons fly in or out from Delhi airport. Assuming 50% travellers from nearby areas (rest coming from nearby towns not being catered by Uber). I’ll assume 70% use taxi or ride sharing app. Considering Uber having 40% market share, we can assume the number of rides going in and out from airport to be

=100.000 *50% (local population)*70% (Rest are dropped off by family/friends or use own vehicle)*40% =14K rides daily

 

Office Goers – Approximately 20L white collar employees out of which 20% prefer travelling by car (Personal or taxi). 50% use personal cars. Out of which assuming 40% use Uber out of Taxi/Ride sharing service. The number of rides taken daily

=20L * 20% *50% *40%*2 (To and fro) = 160K rides

 

Professionals attending an event or meeting

Assuming 50 major events in the city and approximately 500 persons attending the event. Assuming 20% use ride sharing or taxi and Uber having 40% share.

=50*500*20%*40% =2K rides

Assuming 1% professionals going out for meeting and 50% prefer to use taxi/ride sharing. Assuming 5 rides daily by those users for meetings

=20L*1%*50%*40% *5 = 20K rides daily

 

Family/Individuals going out for shopping/eating out or meeting friends/families twice a week or other misc use cases

Approximating the weekly number of rides

20L families *50% preferring car * 20% using taxi or ride sharing *40% using uber *2 (to and fro) *2 = 320K weekly rides. Assuming 10% of total on any weekday- 32K rides daily  

 

 The total number of rides taken daily are – 230K rides daily on any weekday. 

 

Few clarifying questions that I’ll ask and assumptions taken-

1)      Total number of rides internationally or in a country or in a city? Here I’ll calculate total number of rides in a city like Delhi NCR which includes Delhi and its suburbs.

2)      I’ll consider rides taken by consumer and not consider rides part of uber eats business

3)      I am considering only intra city rides

4)      I’ll estimate the daily rides.

5)      I’ll restrict the scope to any working day.

 

Here, I’ll find out the different users and way people use Uber rides and try to find out approximate number of rides taken for different use cases.

Following are the major users of Uber –

1)      Traveling to and fro from Airport

2)      Office Goers

3)      Professionals attending an event or meeting

4)      Family going out for shopping/eating out or meeting other

Now I’ll estimate the total number of users, percentage of them using cars and rides being taken in different use cases.

I’ll use the formula:

Total number of Target Group * Percentage of users preferring cars * Percentage of users using Taxi/Ride sharing *Uber market share in that segment.

Now let’s consider the different use cases:

1)      Travelling to and fro from Airport

Total number of travellers – Approximately 100 thousand persons fly in or out from Delhi airport. Assuming 50% travellers from nearby areas (rest coming from nearby towns not being catered by Uber). I’ll assume 70% use taxi or ride sharing app. Considering Uber having 40% market share, we can assume the number of rides going in and out from airport to be

=100.000 *50% (local population)*70% (Rest are dropped off by family/friends or use own vehicle)*40% =14K rides daily

2)      Office Goers – Approximately 20L white collar employees out of which 20% prefer travelling by car (Personal or taxi). 50% use personal cars. Out of which assuming 40% use Uber out of Taxi/Ride sharing service. The number of rides taken daily

=20L * 20% *50% *40%*2 (To and fro) = 160K rides

3)      Professionals attending an event

Assuming 50 major events in the city and approximately 500 persons attending the event. Assuming 20% use ride sharing or taxi and Uber having 40% share.

=50*500*20%*40% =2K rides

Assuming 1% professionals going out for meeting and 50% prefer to use taxi/ride sharing. Assuming 5 rides daily by those users for meetings

=20L*1%*50%*40% *5 = 20K rides daily

 

4)      Family/Individuals going out for shopping/eating out or meeting friends/families twice a week or other misc use cases

Approximating the weekly number of rides

20L families *50% preferring car * 20% using taxi or ride sharing *40% using uber *2 (to and fro) *2 = 320K weekly rides. Assuming 10% of total on any weekday- 32K rides daily  

 The total number of rides taken daily are – 230K rides daily on any weekday.

 

Clarify:

• can i assume we want to calculate for a city, say Los Angeles? - yes
• this includes all user types - pool, xl, etc.? -yes
• pool could have multiple passengers but each booking is a ride? - yes

tot. work hrs i see 4-10 hrs. I will take an avg of 8 hrs, which is a std work schedule and many are full time drivers.

occupancy rate 

i would say an uber driver is roughly carrying passengers for 5 hrs considering breaks and time spent in driving to the passenger, waiting and driving empty. so ~60%

putting it all together,

total rides = total # drivers * tot. work hrs * occupancy rate /avg. duration of a ride

= 3K * 8 * .6 /0.5 = ~30K/day i.e. ~1M per year

quick validation

Greater LA population = 18M

# households = 1/3 = 6M

rounghly 60% take uber = 3.6M, @ avg of 2-3 times a year = $10M/yr

Quick review of the numbers showed that there is a calculation mistake. 30K/day * 300 = 10M/yr

 

 

1. Clarify the scope of the question

• Are we only taking into account the number of rides in London, UK or the world? - London only
• Estimating it when? Right now (this second, hour, in a day, week or year) - in a day
• Taking into account pool journeys

*Calculating the number of Uber rides in London in a day

2. Create the main equation

Number of uber rides = No. of uber drivers working on a given day x No. of trips made per day

3. Break down the unknowns in the equation into simpler equations

a) Number of cars registered

Population of London is 9million

• Divide by income
• Divide by family/children
• Divide by central London and outskirts

5% population is homeless: 0.45m - approx 0.5m

Central London = Zone 1 to 3: 30% ——> 2.5m

Outskirts = Zone 4 onwards: 70% ———> 6m

10% of people living central would own a car: 250K

80% people: 4.8M

Total cars in London: 4.8+250K = Approx 5M

10% are registered as uber drivers = 500K

On a given day 10% uber drivers log into the app to work = 50

b) Number of trips made per day

• Journey in central London: Shorter; avg 15min
• Journey's outside: longer: avg 35min
• Peak hours: 2 long journeys or 4 short
• Non-peak hours: 1 long journey or 2 short

8 am to 10 am and 4 to 6 pm are peak hours and 10 am to 4 pm and 6 pm to 8 am are non-peak hours

FT Driver - 40% - 8hrs

PT Driver - 60% - 3hrs

Let's assume a driver works for avg 5 hours a day:

4. Calculate the numbers

No of journies in 1 Peak hour and rest nonpeak hour: 4 small journeys X 2hrs + 1 long journey X 3 = 11Journeys

Number of uber rides = No. of uber drivers working on a given day x No. of trips made per day

Number of uber rides = 500 x 11 = approx 500K rides a day

 

Assumptions:  US only
Per Day

Gig economy: 20%

%age of gig economy in Driving: 10%

No. of full time to part time drivers: 1/10

Cities: Population > 100,000

Towns: Population<= 100,000

City Population: 60% of US population

Town Population: 40% of US population

Ride share: 50% Uber

 

Equation:

No of rides = No of Drivers * Rides per driver

 

No. of Drivers:

Drivers: Full Time, Part time

They can be in large cities and small cities

 

Part time drivers in Cities: 

US Population * City % * % of gig workers * % of gig working driving * No. of days driving * Ride Share

= 300 M * 60% * 20% * 10% * 1/7 *.5

= 250,000

Part time drivers in Towns: 150,000

 

Using assumption of 1/10 of full time to part time

 

Full time driver drive 8 hours and part time driver drive 4 hours. Each ride take half hour.

 

		No of drivers	No of rides
Full time	City	25,000	16
Full time	Town	15,000	16
Part time	City	250,000	8
Part time	Town	150,000	8

 

Total rides:  400000+ 240000+2 M + 1.2 M = 3.84M

Clarifying Question-

1. Is it for any specific geography - US (entire US)

2. # of rides frequency? - Per day

3. Business Intent of ride in scope - Only Commute ( Both Uber and Uberpool) no Uber eats in scope

 

I will estimate the # of rides/day for commute using demand side analysis.

 

Since Uber is the flag bearer of ride sharing apps - Assuming 70% market share for Uber in rural market

Lyft is competing on equal footing with Uber hence assuming 60% market share in Metropolitan area

Total Market size for Uber is 102Million

 

#rides - 5million/day

 

Assumptions -

1. The number of Uber rides has to be estimated for a specific city. I've taken the city to be Delhi(India) in my example 
2. The number of Uber rides has to be estimated averaging per day. If the need be, can be multiplied by a factor of 365 for an year
3. This estimation is only applicable for Uber rides for Delhi and not for Delhi NCR 
4. Total Pupulation of Delhi - 2 million approximately
5. Peak hour duration - 8 a.m - 11 a.m and 5 p.m - 8 p.m
6. Non peak hour duration - Rest of the time slots of the day

Estimation - I've come up with the following equation for estimating the Uber rides per day

Equation - # Uber rides hailed per day in peak hours +  # Uber rides hailed per day in non - peak hours

In both the cases, the number of Uber rides can be estimated by taking a proportion of the population likely to hail a ride

• Number of Uber Rides in peak hours - This can be estimate by estimating the porportion of working age population gainfully employed likely to travel by cab * Market share of Uber

            Proportion of working age population - 60%

            Proportion of population employed - 70%

            Division of modes of transportation to work               

             Proportion travelling by public transport (Bus/Metro/Three Wheeler) - 30%
             Proportion which doesn't travel to work(Office at the same location/Nearby) - 5%
             Proportion travelling by private transport (Two wheelers) - 20%
             Proportion travelling by private transport (Four Wheelers) - 15%
             Proportion travelling by public transport (Cab) - 20%
          Proportion of people present at  work on an average - 90%
          Market Share of Uber - 60%

          Calculation - 
             2,000,000 * .6 * .7 * .2 * .9 * .6 = 90,720 ~ 90,000 

• Number of Uber Rides in non peak hours - This estimation would be broken down into day hours and night hours since the likelihood of hailing a cab would differ by a lot 
  • Number of rides 11 - 5 - The maximum proportion of riders in this time period would be 30% non employed people and some other non working age population adults 
    Propensity of working age population adults not employed hailing a cab could be 10%
    Propensity of non working age population adults hailing a cab could be 5% on an average
    Calculation - 
    (2,000,000 * .4 * .05 * 0.6 + 2,000,000 * 0.6 * .3 * .1 * 0.6 = 24,000 + 21,000 = 45,000 approximately
  • Number of rides 8 - 8 - The maximum proportion of riders during this time are travellers to and from dinners or to and from railway stations/airports
    Majority of this population is also the population that's in the working age group and employed 
    Propensity of an average adult hailing a cab per day - 10%
    Calculation - 
    2,000,000 * .6 * .7 * 0.2 * 0.6 = 50,000 approximately

Therefore, the total number of Uber rides per day in Delhi = 90,000 + 45,000 + 50,000 = 185,000

	Estimate total Uber rides per day in USA
Method 1:	Total Population	300,000,000
	Total people want a taxi (30%)	90,000,000
	Uber market share (60%)	54,000,000
	DAU (20%)	10,800,000
	Average passengers per trip	2
	Total uber users for trips per day	5,400,000
Method 2:	Total Uber users in USA	50,000,000
	DAU (20%)	10,000,000
	Average passengers per trip	2
	Total trips per day	5,000,000

I am working on the assumption that this question refers to Uber India.

Uber operates in about 30 cities in India. Lets calculate the number of Uber rides in one city and then we can work bottom up for calculating the same for India.

Lets classify them as per follows:

•  Cities Ranked 1-6 by Area: Metros
• Cities Ranked 7-20 by Area: Large Cities
• Cities Ranked 21-30 by Area: Medium Cities

• Large Area: More than 40 sq Km
• Large Cities : 20-40 sq Km
• Medium Cities: Till 20 sq Km