How would you estimate the number of mobile phones sold by Xiaomi in a day?

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How would you estimate the number of mobile phones sold by Xiaomi in a day?

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rahul_g · Answer 1 · 2020-04-16T02:40:28+0000

When you sold by xiaomi I am assuming you meant to first time customer and re-sales are not part of the scope

Population off the world 7 Billion

Internet penetration ~65% = 4.55 Billion

% of users on smart mobile devices = 80% = 3.6 billion approx

Average ownership length across the world = 2.5 years= 1.44 Billion sold a year

android device share = 80% =1.15 billion

Very popular in India but not so popular in China,europe , averages out to may 12% market share ( 25% in India, about 10% in China, Europe)

=138 million =378k a day

Hung Nguyen · Answer 2 · 2020-04-08T02:49:52+0000

Clarify question

Xiaomi sold in particular markets or around the world?
- Assuming the answer is around the world

Estimate answer

Number of people using mobile phone
- As I know, the world population is around 8 billion
- I assume that 70%-90% of people in developed countries using mobile phone
- There are 50%-70% of people in the world using mobile phone
- Taking the midpoint of the range, we get 60% of people using mobile phone => 8x60% = 4.8 billion phones around the world
Number of people using smartphone
- In developed countries like the USA, around 60%-80% of the cell phones are smartphones.
- Globally, the percentage of smartphones is around 40%
- 4.8 billion X 40% = 1.92 billion smartphones around the world
Xiaomi market share
- Nowadays, big smartphone brands include:
  - Apple => 25%
  - Samsung => 25%
  - Huawei => 10%
  - Xiaomi => 10%
  - Others => 30%
- 1.92 billion x 10% => 192 million xiaomi phones
Number of xiaomi phones sold annually
- There are many people changing their phone very often (1 year or 6 months).
- On the other hand, there are people rarely changing their phones, 3-4 years
- On average, people change their Smartphones every 2 years. => Every year, there are 192/2 = 96 million xiaomi phones sold.
- The number of Xiaomi phones sold per day = 96 million /365 = 263 thousand

My answer is 263 thousand xiaomi phones that are sold daily.

harry YOUMBI · Answer 3 · 2020-04-07T17:12:55+0000

Clarification : Let's clarify that you'd like to know the number of mobile phones sold in the entire world per day.

Main Equation :

Number of mobile phones sold by Xiaomi / day = Number of mobile phones sold in a year X % Market share of Xiaomi / Number of days in a year

Let's decompose these numbers by assumptions :

Number of mobile phones sold in a year ~~ 1,5 Billion (based on the numbers of mobiles phones sold during the last years)

% Market share of Xiaomi ~~ 10%
Number of days in a year = 365

Estimation

Number of mobile phones sold by Xiaomi / day = 400k phones

Prabhav Gupta · Answer 4 · 2020-08-11T03:17:57+0000

Clarification questions -

All phones or specific? Assuming smartphones
All channels, or specific? e-commerce
Geography? India

Number of phones sold in a day = Total no. of smartphones sold in a year (e-commerce)/ 365 * MI India market share (%)

Total no. of smartphones sold in a year in India via e-commerce -

Assuming India's population - 1 b

Considering India's internet penetration of 40%, population with internet access - 400 m

Considering only the young and mid-aged will place e-commerce orders. Assuming the proportion to be 50%, population with internet access and who can place e-commerce orders - 200 m

Assuming that the penetration split to be 1:1 between urban and rural - 100 m (Urban) & 100 m (Rural)

Further assuming people change their phones at an average duration of 2 years, so in any given year 50 m (urban) & 50 m (rural)

For the urban -
- The proportion of smart-phones sold vs feature on e-commerce will be 80:20
- The proportion of smart-phones sold via stores vs e-commerce 30:70
- Total number of smart-phones sold in urban areas in India via e-commerce = 80% *70% * 50 m = 28 m
For the rural -
- The proportion of smart-phones sold vs feature on e-commerce will be 50:50
- The proportion of smart-phones sold via stores vs e-commerce 50:50
- Total number of smart-phones sold in rural areas in India via e-commerce = 50% *50% * 50 m = 12.5 m

Total no. of smartphones sold in a year in India via e-commerce = 28 m + 12.5 m = 40.5 m

MI India market share (%) -

Assuming it to be 30%

Answer - 40.5 m/ 365 * 30% = 12 m/ 365 = 33 K

Madhan N · Answer 5 · 2020-08-07T05:04:14+0000

Clarifying questions –

Shall we take a specific market? (Take India)

Should we consider a specific segment, like low or premium segments? (Consider low and medium)

Shall we consider sales done via specific channels? Like ecommerce platforms, retail shops? (Consider all). Okay, in that case, I’m assuming this factor doesn’t matter much.

Let’s say the perceived average durability of low and medium range Xiaomi phones would be around 2 years. Population in India is around 140 crores. Assuming premium segment to be around 30%, the rest 70% are low and medium segments. Out of these, let’s say 10% don’t use phones at all. So, the total buyer market of low / medium segments by size would be around 84 crores. Xiaomi’s share would be around 30% giving is 25 crores roughly. Now, assuming that this number is uniformly spread across the 2 year duration, the number of low / medium range phones sold per day by Xiaomi in India would be 25 crores / 730 = around 3.5 lakhs or 0.35 million.

Hari Hari · Answer 6 · 2020-04-16T16:11:55+0000

Geo Location - India

Total No. of smart phone users(est) - 350 million for the year 2020

Market share - 12% for Xiaomi

12%(est) of 350m = 42 million

Depending on festival times like Diwali, New year, Shopping cart SPL sales the sale may vary considerably and my assumption is lets say 25% of sales happen during festival days and the remaining 75% ordinary days. We can even break down to sundays of necessary for decision making.

So 42000000

Festival Days(25%) = 10500000

Normal Days(75%) = 31500000

Lets Consider - 75% normal days devided by 365 -> 31500000/365 = 86,301

We can break down to the cities, retails with numbers too and bring to a decision when to launch phones, target markets, budget phones etc

Pavan Kumar · Answer 7 · 2020-04-15T12:32:52+0000

Here I'm calculating number of Xiaomi phones sold in India everyday

Indian has 1.2 billion population

20% live in poverty - 240 million cannot afford as they live in poverty

That leaves 960 million Indian who can afford mobile phones.

Of this Rural to Urban population ratio is 60:40

That leaves 576 million Rural people and 384 million rural people

Total number of mobile phones in India

90% of the Urban people have mobile phones

70% of the rural people have mobile phones

Taking the average from above , around 80 % of India has mobile phone, so 0.96 billion *80% = 768 million phones are there in India

Around 70% have smartphones ( phones that is touch enabled with internet) 537 million smartphones in India

Market share of xiaomi =30%

161 million Xiaomi phones are sold annually.

Everyday 400k Xiaomi phones are sold in India everyday