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Here's my initial thought on answering this product manager interview estimation question:
What is a whatsapp chat?
No. of messages sent on what’s app?,
no. of unique conversations (Unique: no. of different person chats/ user/ day)?
No. of page visits leading to a chat?
Assumptions:
Let’s assume no. of messages sent on a daily basis.
No video calling/ group calling included.
Equation: No. of whatsapp users * Avg no. of whatsapp contacts or groups/user speaks to on a daily basis *no. of messages sent
No. of whatsapp users in India= Total India population * Internet penetration * %smartphone users * %using whatsapp
=1.3B* 70%*60%*80%= 0.7*0.6*0.8*1.3B = ~437MM users
User types and their message behavior-
User types | Groups | Group messages sent (A) | 1:1 messages (B) | Total Messages (A+B) | Population | Total messages |
Very high usage | 5 | 2, (10) | 10 | 20 | 10% (43 M) | 860M |
High usage | 3 | 1, 3 | 7 | 10 | 40% (173M) | 1.7B |
Medium usage | 2 | 1,2 | 4 | 6 | 30% (138M) | 1.3B |
Low usage | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 20% (86M) | 258M |
Total average messages/ day ~4B, assuming seasonality etc, the above stats applies to alteast 75% of time, on an average, there are ~3B messages exchanged / day
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C: Okay.So what is the time frame?
I: Per day.
C: Okay. Does this include only personal chats or group chats too?
I: Both.
C: Okay. Can i define a chat as any conversation that has happened in the last 24 hours?
I: Yes.
C: Okay.
So the number of whatsapp chats per day in India= Number of Personal Chats + Number of Group chats per day
Number of Personal Chats= Number of Users* Number of chats per User
Number of Group Chats= Number of Users* Number of chats per user
1) Personal Chats.
Number of whatsapp users = Approx 300 Mn
Number of DAU of whatsapp = 90% of 300 Mn= 270 Mn
Avg Frequency of Usage of remaining 10%= 0.5
Hence, No of Active Users on any given day= 0.5* 30 Mn=15 Mn
Avg conversations( chats ) of DAU= 10
Avg conversation( chats) of Semi daily active user= 5
Total number of chats= 10*0.27+5*0.015 Bn = 27.5 Bn
As one chat is between 2 people, number of unique chats= 27.5 Bn/2= 2.775 Bn
2) Group Chats
One user is on an average susbcribed to 5 groups.
All groups get atleast one message daily.
Hence, Number of Chats= 0.27*5+ 0.015*5 Bn = 1.425 Bn
Avg No. of members in one group= 100
Hence, number of Unique chats= 0.01425 Bn
Total Unique chats= Unique chats personal + Unique chats group = 2.775 Bn + 0.01425 Bn= 2.79 Bn
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Clarification
- What timeframe for the chat? —> Lets assume one single day
- What is the definition of chat ?
- 1 to 1 chats only, Group chats? Delivered messages or Read messages? Does the receiver need to respond for it to be considered a chat? —> Lets consider any successfully delivered message as an active chat
- Are group chats considered 1 chat to N chats where N = number of members in the group as each of them receive a message? —> One message sent to group is one chat
I am going to estimate the number of WhatsApp chats occurring in India per day by using the formula below
Daily Chat count = WhatApp DAUs * Avg. Chats Sent per users per day
Where
- DAUs is the avg number of people using WhatsApp on a given day account for weekdays and weekends or holidays
- Chats per user is the avg number of messages a user sends to a another user or another group AND is marked as delivered
Estimating the Messages sent per day
WhatsApp users in India
- India Population = 1.2 billion
- [Assumption] Smartphone users = 40% —> 500M
- [Assumption] WhatsApp users % of smartphone users = 70% —> 350M
- WhatsApp is a very popular service in India with massive adoption across the country; India is WhatsApp’s biggest market and the service is used for all types of communications (not limited to social messaging)
Daily active users for WhatsApp - 70% —> ~240M
- [Assumption] For the DAU definition I am assuming a user is marked as active when she opens the app either to send or read a message.
- I believe WhatsApp product stickiness is very high (DAU/MAU) given the popularity of the service and the fact that it used for social and commercial reasons.
- I would assume DAUs to be 70% of the MAUs. This is on the higher end for apps but given how WhatsApp is used I am confident backing this number
Avg Chats Sent Per DAU
- [Assumption] Group Messaging
- Each user is part of ~10 groups
- INBOUND (responding to a message)
- Group messages received per day assuming 7 groups are active out of the 10 and each group has ~10 messages/day
- Total group messages received = 7*10 = 70/day
- Response rate to group messages - 20% (lower likelihood or rescinding to group messages as most may not require a response and might be similar to social sharing)
- OUTBOUND (initiating a message)
- Messages sent across groups = 5 per day (sharing articles, forwards, videos, pics)
- Total Group messages Sent = Inbound + Outbound = ~14 + ~5 = ~20/day
- [Assumption] 1 on 1 messaging
- Each user has around Avg of ~10 strong connections whereas a larger number of shallow connections (where connection == strength of the relationship and frequency of communication (friends, family, colleagues))
- INBOUND (responses to messages)
- Messages received per day from strong connections - ~50/day
- Messages received per day from shallow connections - ~10/day
- Response rate to 1 on 1 messages - 90% (higher likelihood of responding to individual messages after controlling for forwards)
- Total messages sent = 60 * 90% = ~54
- OUTBOUND (initiating a message)
- Messages initiated with strong connections - 10/day
- Messages initiation with shallow connections - 5/day
- Total message sent = 15/day
- Total 1 on 1 messages sent = Inbound + Outbound = 54+ 15 = ~70/day
- Total Chats sent per day = Group Messaging + 1 on 1 messaging = 20+ 70 = ~90/day
Daily Chat count = WhatApp DAUs * Avg. Chats Sent per users per day = 240M * 90 —> ~22 Billion/day
Limitations
- Group Messaging: Difficult to estimate the number of messages sent to groups and the participation rate. Most people maybe passive participants or it could be a highly lively group. Also, the number is sensitive to the number of members in the group and the network effects / virality of certain content is difficult to model / could skew the number
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Platinum PM
Before starting the estimation, I would like to claify the following:
When we say WhatsApp chats, does it include the messages being sent to businesses? → No
Are we considering messages/chats exchanged on groups or just 1:1? → Both
Are we estimating the number of WhatsApp chats per day? → Yes
I am assuming by chats, we are referring to mainly text/image/audio-based messages and not really the voice and video calls.
When we say WhatsApp chats, we are referring to each of the messages being sent and not really a chat session.
Reiterating, we are trying to estimate the number of text messages sent over WhatsApp daily in India.
No. of WhatsApp chats daily = Number of people sending messages through WhatsApp * Average number of messages sent by a person in a day
Lets first estimate the number of people sending messages through WhatsApp:
Population of India ~ 1.46B or 1.5B
Assuming life expectancy of 80 years, uniform population distribution across age groups and assuming children below 10 years of age and senior citizens above 75 years of age do not really use WhatsApp (I strongly believe most of the senior citizens above the age of 60 years, though not tech-savvy, do know the use of WhatsApp and to send the daily “Good morning” messages 🙂),
Potential folks who can send WhatsApp messages = (65/80) * 1.5 = 1.21875B or 1.2B.
Anyone needs internet connection to be able to send WhatsApp messages, so assuming internet penetration of ~55 to 60% in India, Potential folks who can send WhatsApp messages = 60% of 1.2B = 0.6 * 1.2 = 0.72B.
I am assuming that who ever has internet connection has a smartphone as mobile penetration is far higher in India compared to that of laptops/desktops.
Also, assuming that almost all the iphone users in India do use WhatsApp.
Each of the folks I know who have smartphone/internet connectivity use WhatsApp. Still, lets consider 10% of folks having smartphones/internet connectivity do not use WhatsApp.
So, finally, the number of people sending messages through WhatsApp = 90% of 0.72B = 0.9*0.72 = 0.648B or 0.65B or 650M
Now lets estimate the average number of messages sent by a person in a day:
We can divide the WhatsApp users by frequency of usage into Very High, High, Medium and Low.
For the estimation of total messages sent, I am not really distinguishing in terms of sending the message to an individual or group.
For "Low" frequency users, I’m considering homemakers like my mom or blue-collar/rural workers who have limited time for their phones and send about 5 messages per day.
For "Medium" frequency, I’m thinking of working professionals like myself who are less social and send around 15 messages daily.
For "Very High" frequency, I’m referring to self-employed small business owners and students who actively chat on WhatsApp, sending about 50 messages per day.
For “High” frequency, I am thinking of working professionals who are socail and might send around 25 messages/day.
Higher percentage of the population might belong to the “Medium and High” frequency usage groups. So, keeping things simple and assuming the percentage distribution across “Low”, “Medium”, “High” and “Very High” frequency of usage groups to be 20%, 30%, 30% and 20%.
| Low (A) | 20% | 5 |
| Medium (B) | 30% | 15 |
| High (C) | 30% | 25 |
| Very High (D) | 20% | 50 |
Now, lets do the final calculation:
Initial equation: No. of WhatsApp chats daily = Number of people sending messages through WhatsApp * Average number of messages sent by a person in a day can be rewritten as
No. of WhatsApp chats daily = Number of people of group A sending messages through WhatsApp * Average number of messages sent by a person of group A in a day + Number of people of group B sending messages through WhatsApp * Average number of messages sent by a person of group B in a day + Number of people of group C sending messages through WhatsApp * Average number of messages sent by a person of group C in a day + Number of people of group D sending messages through WhatsApp * Average number of messages sent by a person of group D in a day
= 20% of 650M * 5 + 30% of 650M * 15 + 30% of 650M * 25 + 20% of 650M * 50 = 0.26505 + 0.365015 + 0.365025 + 0.265050
= 2*65*5 + 3*65*15 + 3*65*25 + 2*65*50
= 650 + 2925 + 4875 + 6500 = 14950M or 14.95B ~ 15B
Sanity Check -
1.5B people sending 15B messages => 15/1.5 = 10 messages being sent per person daily which seems reasonable.
Therefore, number of WhatsApp chat messages occuring in India daily = 15B
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Population and Internet Penetration:
- India’s total population is approximately 1.4 billion.
- With 80% internet penetration, that gives us 1.12 billion people who are connected to the internet.
Smartphone Penetration:
- Of the internet-connected population, around 90% use smartphones, which results in 1 billion smartphone users.
Urban vs. Rural Split:
- Based on demographics, 40% of the population is urban and 60% is rural.
- In urban areas, I assumed 100% of smartphone users are using WhatsApp.
- In rural areas, I assumed 70% of smartphone users are using WhatsApp.
Total WhatsApp Users:
- In urban areas:
- 40% of 1 billion smartphone users = 0.4 billion (400 million).
- Since 100% of urban smartphone users use WhatsApp, that gives us 400 million WhatsApp users in urban areas.
- In rural areas:
- 60% of 1 billion smartphone users = 0.6 billion (600 million).
- Of these, 70% use WhatsApp, which gives us 420 million WhatsApp users in rural areas.
- Total WhatsApp users = 400 million (urban) + 420 million (rural) = 820 million WhatsApp users in India.
- In urban areas:
I divided these 820 million WhatsApp users into three categories based on the size of their social circles:
Large friend/peer circle (40%):
- 40% of 820 million = 328 million users.
- These users send 20–30 personal chats per day and 10–20 group chats per day.
Medium friend/peer circle (40%):
- 40% of 820 million = 328 million users.
- These users send 10–20 personal chats per day and 5–10 group chats per day.
Low friend/peer circle (20%):
- 20% of 820 million = 164 million users.
- These users send 5–10 personal chats per day and 5–10 group chats per day.
Large friend/peer circle:
- Average of 20–30 chats = 25 chats per day.
- Total personal chats for this group = 328 million × 25 = 8.2 billion personal chats per day.
Medium friend/peer circle:
- Average of 10–20 chats = 15 chats per day.
- Total personal chats for this group = 328 million × 15 = 4.92 billion personal chats per day.
Low friend/peer circle:
- Average of 5–10 chats = 7.5 chats per day.
- Total personal chats for this group = 164 million × 7.5 = 1.23 billion personal chats per day.
Total personal chats = 8.2 billion + 4.92 billion + 1.23 billion = 14.35 billion personal chats per day.
Group Chats:Large friend/peer circle:
- Average of 10–20 chats = 15 chats per day.
- Total group chats for this group = 328 million × 15 = 4.92 billion group chats per day.
Medium friend/peer circle:
- Average of 5–10 chats = 7.5 chats per day.
- Total group chats for this group = 328 million × 7.5 = 2.46 billion group chats per day.
Low friend/peer circle:
- Average of 5–10 chats = 7.5 chats per day.
- Total group chats for this group = 164 million × 7.5 = 1.23 billion group chats per day.
Total group chats = 4.92 billion + 2.46 billion + 1.23 billion = 8.61 billion group chats per day.
Total WhatsApp Chats in India:Adding personal and group chats together, we get:
- Total WhatsApp chats per day = 14.35 billion personal chats + 8.61 billion group chats = 22.96 billion chats per day.
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Gold PM
To estimate the number of WA chats in India, we start by asking the following clarifying questions:
- What duration are we talking about?
- 18+ individuals only
- Only Person to Person ; not Person to Business , Business to Business, or Business to Person.
- No broadcast messages.
- 60% is 18+ and 50% has access to internet and WA.
- Each individual has 50 unique contacts and connects with 20% individuals on WA.
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Silver PM
1. Is their any time frame we are calculating for:- **In a day**
2. Are we calculating both for WhatsApp Web and mobile:- **Let's go for mobile devices**
3. I think talk between two people is considered 1 chat, right?:- **Yes**
4. Are we calculating a number of group chats or only personal chats:- **Let's go for personal chats only**
5. WhatsApp business chats are also there should we consider that? :- **Skip it for now.**
Creating the Equation
**Number of chats=**
Number of users of WhatsApp * Number of daily average chats/per person
Solving
Finding the number of people who have an account on WhatsApp
1. The population of India is 1.2 billion
2. Internet penetration is **70% = 840 million.** It is considered with the distribution of urban(40%) and rural (60%) population. Assuming urban people have access to the internet and half of the rural population has also access to the internet making it **70%**
3. A number of families, assuming a family of 4 = 840/4 = **210 million.** In this, I can consider a little less number of low-income families compared to other income classes because of the availability of internet criteria. ****
| | 4 smart phones per family | 3 smart phones per family | 2 smart phones per family | 1 smart phone per family | 0 smart phones per family | Total |
| High Class (20%) = 42 million | 95% = 40 million * 4 = 160 million | 5% = 2 million * 3 = 6 million | 0% | 0% | 0% | 166 million |
| Upper Middle Class (30%) =63 million | 80% = 50 million * 4 = 200 million | 15% = 10 million * 3 = 30 million | 5% = 3 million * 2 = 6 million | 0% | 0% | 236 million |
| Lower Middle Class (30%) = 63 million | 10% = 6.3 million * 4 =25 million | 10% = 6.3 million * 3 = 20 million | 40% = 25 million * 2 = 50 million | 30% = 19 million * 1 = 19 million | 10% | 114 million |
| Lower Class (20%) = 42 million | 0% | 10% = 4.2 million * 3 = 12.5 million | 20% =8.4 million * 2 = 17 million | 50% = 21 million * 1 = 21 million | 20% | 51 million |
| Total | | | | | | 567 million |
Assuming **90%** of the people who have a smartphone have an account on WhatsApp.
Therefore the total number of users is **510 million**
Now divide this number of people into the below 3 segments:-
From my personal experience
1. **Aggressive users**- a person who chats at least with 10 people in a day. Generally Young Adults and some part of working professionals as well making it approximately **40% = 204 million**
2. **Active Users -** a person who chats at least with 5 people in a day. Generally, teenagers and some part of Working professionals make it to approximately **40% = 204 million**
3. **Passive Users** - a person who chats at least with 1 person in a day. Generally, senior citizens and teenagers comprise of this making it the rest of the **20% = 102 million**
Total number of chats in a day = 204 million * 10 + 204 million * 5 + 102 million * 1 = **3.2 billion**
In making a chat 2 devices are required so the answer is half of it.
The total number of chats in a day = **1.6 billion**
Sanity Check
For the sanity check, let's check it from India's half Population 1.6 / 0.6 = 3 chats per person. And it is completely acceptable.
I could have gone for a more accurate process while defining Aggressive, active, and passive users. Like diving then through the age groups and then calculating it separately. That would have given me a more accurate approach.
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Gold PM
Clarifying questions
Are we talking about B2C or only C2C chats → Lets assume consumer to consumer chats
Are we talking about the unique chat session between two users or number of chat messages → unique chat session
What’s the time duration we are looking at → assume daily
Should we include chat as part of the groups→ you decide → at this time i more inclined towards keeping it to 1-1 chats
I now have fair idea in terms of what we want→ number of unique 1-1 whats app chat in india in a day
Catalog what you know
Number of smartphone users -> number of connects (strong, medium and low )--> no of chats/ per day with strong connect vs medium vs low
Strong connects → wife, son, bf , gf, close friends
Moderate connect → extended family members→ cousin, school friends,
Low connect → distant relatives , college friends, colleagues
Make an equations
For the sake of this discussion, i will focus on strong and moderate connect and bump that number by 10% for low connect
Number of smartphone users * % of whatsap users *(no of strong connect per users* avg number of chats per strong connect + no of moderate connect per users * avg no of chats per day with moderate connect
Edge cases
Some assumptions → connect is uniform for age group which may not be the reality we can change this later on
We can assume children below 10 and oldies will have lesser message → half of other
Compute
India population - 1.2 billion
Smartphone penetration - 40%
400 million smartphone concurrently used
Smartphone with whatsapp on it → 400 million
No of strong connect per person→ 5
No of moderate connect per person → 10
Avg no of chat/day with strong connect → 2
Avg no of chats/ day with moderate connect → 0.5
For one chat two devices will be engaged → 200 million device for one chat
160 million*(5*2+ 10*0.5)= 160*(10+5) = 160* 15= 2400 million
Assume 20 of this is oldie and kids → only use half of this → 20*20%=40million= 40 million*7.5=300 billion
2700 million chats
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Bronze PM
By a chat, I’m assuming a two-way conversation in a private chat window at a stretch. And considering a per day number. And I’m not including business messages here.
Population of India 130 crores. Internet mobile users would be around 70%. 90 crores. 10% of the users don’t use any of the chat Apps. That gives 80 crores. Out of these, WhatsApp would be around 95%. That gives us 76 crores.
Three types of people I text – dear ones, friends and acquaintances, with a frequency of 20, 10, 1 per week day and 40, 20, 2 per day on a weekend. That gives me 25, 15, 1 chats per day on an average. Basically around 40 chats per day on an average.
And considering other non-frequent (NF) users like my parents, they mostly text in groups or make private calls only mostly. So, giving around 10, 2, 1 chats per day. Assuming this to be an even distribution across the week. Basically around 12 chats per day on an average.
Let’s say power users around 60% and NF users around 40%. 45 crores power users and around 30 NF users. 1800 crores + 360 crores = around 2160 crores chats per day.
Now considering 10% of these would be made to foreign users, the remaining would be within India itself. So the actual number would be half of 90% of 2160 = around 970 crores and 10% of 2160 to be 216 crores giving us a total of 1186 crores chats per day on an average by users in India.
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PM
I Will be taking the approach as mentioned below:
1. Ask clarification question to define the scope.
2. Repeat the problem considering the clarification to be on the same page with interviewer.
3. Come up with equation for estimation
4. State the assumption & do the calculation
Clarification:
- Do I need to consider forwards, individual messages – Ignore forwards. Consider only text messages to individuals
- Do videos, gif, audios, text.. All type of messages to consider – Just consider Text Messages.
- Do I need to estimate for entire world – No Estimate it only for India
- Do the estimation required for entire year or any month – For simplicity matter, Make it for a day
Problem Statement for Shared understanding:
I need to estimate the number of WhatsApp text messages only in India per day which includes both forwards and individual message.
Estimation:
- As per stats, India’s approx. population by 2020 is 1300 Million.
- Again as per stats, Internet penetration in India by 2017 is 35% and assuming growth 1.5% per year due to availability of smart phone & internet data pack at relatively cheaper rate, By 2020 internet penetration will be considered as 40%.
- Total internet users in India in 2020 is 1300*40% = 520 million.
- As per stats, Smart phone users across India are approx. 400 million.
- In India, much of elderly population uses smart phone to watch news or movies or any entertainment channels and are not very comfortable with using WhatsApp. I Assume 80% of the smart phone uses WhatsApp, The total WhatsApp population in India will be 400 * 80% = 320 Million.
- Out of 320 Million, Lets split young age (16-30 yrs) population who uses WhatsApp to send messages frequently, Middle age (31-45 yrs) population who uses WhatsApp only if they find it necessary and no frequent messaging and population older than 45 years who uses WhatsApp only if it’s absolute necessary and hardly messages.
- Assumption: Only from age 16 people in India will get smart phone and start using WhatsApp.
- Below is the equation to estimate the WhatsApp text messages per day in India :
Equation to estimate:
[[Young age population * (# of Forwards + # of Text msgs)] + Middle age population * ((# of Forwards + # of Text msgs)] + [population over 45 years * (# of Forwards + # of Text msgs)]] * Total # of hours of WhatsApp usage per day texting and forwarding message.
Assume on average WhatsApp will be used for 2 hours in entire day by 320 million of population.
[[128(120+10) + 112 (60+3) + 80 (20+1)]* 2]
= [16640 + 7056 + 1680 ] * 2
= 50,752 Million text messages per day.
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Estimate the number of WhatsApp chats occuring in India
Nice question, this will be fun
Clarification
When you say Chats does it include 1-1 and group chats both and calls are not included, assuming yes
business volume is minimal so won't be looking at that
Do you mean number of people user speaks with or number of messages, I'm assuming latter
over what period? I'm assuming you mean daily
Representation of volume
Number messages sent = number of users sending messages x average messages sent per conversation x number of conversation
Even in case of GC technically one sender is sending one message but to multiple users, so we'll need to keep this in account
Number of users sending messages
Given that Whatsapp is the most popular messaging app in India and practically all internet users have it installed I expected active user base to be high and large % of active user base will be messaging daily
80% of active user base of Whatsapp
Active user base = 90% of installed base
Now let's calculate the installed base
population of India = 1300 Million
internet population = latest numbers suggest 50% = 650 million
% of mobile internet users = 90% of 650 = 585 Million
Given the pervasive nature of whatsapp I expect 90% of this population to have whatspp installed = 527 million
Active user base of whatsapp = 90% = 475 Million
Sender base = 80% of installed base = 380 milion
Number of 1-1 chats
Assuming active social network(people the user speaks with) of 5 per user WRT 1-1 chats ( users can reply to stories or ping directly)
I'm assuming 20 messages per user
=380 *5 * 20 =3800
Number of GC
I expect 60% of active base to be part of GC's, with an average of 2 groups and 30% of them sending a message.
The groups vary from very large to very small, I'll take the average group size = 10
I expect each sending member to send maybe 5 messages
=380*60%*2*30%*10*5 =6840
total = 6.8 billion + 3.4 billion=10.2 billion messages
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Formula to be worked on :
Total wtsapp chats = Total no of wtsapp users * Average messages sent per day
Total India population = 1.3 billion (1300 million)
Total smartphone users = Approx 30% = 390 million
Total no of wtsapp users out of this population = 90% = 350 million
Average messages sent per day = Avg(personal messages + business messages)
Average personal message count = 5
Average business message count = 20 (Taking in consideration the ecommerce business running on wts app)
Approx total personal chats count = 350*5 = 1750 million
Approx total business chats count = 10% of 350 million *20 = 700 million
Total chats = personal +business = 2450 million -> 2.4 billion
Get unlimited access for $12/month
Get access to 2,346 pm interview questions and answers to give yourself a strong edge against other candidates that are interviewing for the same position
Get access to over 238 hours of video material containing an interview prep course, recorded mock interviews by expert PMs, group practice sessions, and QAs with expert PMs
Boost your confidence in PM interviews by attending peer to peer mock interview practices, group practices, and QA sessions with expert PMs
Get unlimited access for $12/month
Get access to 2,346 pm interview questions and answers to give yourself a strong edge against other candidates that are interviewing for the same position
Get access to over 238 hours of video material containing an interview prep course, recorded mock interviews by expert PMs, group practice sessions, and QAs with expert PMs
Boost your confidence in PM interviews by attending peer to peer mock interview practices, group practices, and QA sessions with expert PMs
Get unlimited access for $12/month
Get access to 2,346 pm interview questions and answers to give yourself a strong edge against other candidates that are interviewing for the same position
Get access to over 238 hours of video material containing an interview prep course, recorded mock interviews by expert PMs, group practice sessions, and QAs with expert PMs
Boost your confidence in PM interviews by attending peer to peer mock interview practices, group practices, and QA sessions with expert PMs
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