Estimate the uptake of a new improved tool.
A retail bank in US launches a new Software tool for its home loan advisors. This new tool can take inputs of Users (their income , expenses etc) and then recommend the right kind of loan products for that user.
Estimate the uptake of this new tool by the home loan advisors, considering this has a licence fees per usage.
you can take as many assumtions as you need.
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Don't know the US market. Will estimate for India.
Assumptions:
Estimating the uptake in the first year
Software is SaaS based. A typical software sold in SaaS model costs: INR 10k per year
No. of people in India skewed towards younger age
Typically takes around 3 years to reach this market share of 5%
Solution
No. of people: 1.2 Bn
A house costs: INR 40 lacs (4mn) - 1 Cr (10mn).
EMI (assuming 1%): INR 40,000 - 100,000
Eligible earnings: Salary INR 10 lac (1mn) per year
| Age group | No. of People (Skewed towards younger population) | % Earning 10lac+ INR/yr | No. of people | % already bought a house | No. of people already bought a house |
| 20-30 | 150 mn | 2% | 3 mn | 10% | 0.3 mn |
| 30-40 | 150 mn | 5% | ~8mn | 60% | ~5 mn |
| 40-50 | 120 mn | 5% | 6 mn | 80% | ~5 mn |
| 50+ | 100 mn | 10% | 10 mn | 90% | 9 mn |
| Total | 27 mn | 19 mn |
Total addressable market: 27mn - 19mn = 8mn people
Average number of houses sold by an agent in a year: 10
Number of agents needed to sell homes: 0.8 mn or 800,000
5% market share: 40,000 users
Uptake in the first year: 5,000-6,000
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