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Facebook Marketplace sales are up and Local Ads revenue is down. Why?

Asked at Meta (facebook)
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Facebook marketplace sales are up, while local ads revenue is down

  • How much is the sales up?
  • How much is the ads revenue down?
  • Did both the events happen around the same time?
  • Since when is this happening? Lat one month
  • Was it gradual/ sudden? Gradual
  • Is it specific to any geography? India

Metrics impacted -

  • Sales revenue has increased
  • Ads revenue has decreased
This indicates that the sales have happened organically, without the need of pushing buyers to click on the ads.
 
Hypothesis 1: Buyers prefer pear to pear transactions over ad based leads
To further confirm this, we need to understand,
Did the marketplace sales came from existing users?
Did the shops from where sales happened new or existing?
 
Existing buyers = Atleast one purchase in the last 1 week
Existing shops = Atleast 4-5 sales in the last one week
 
Additional metrics -
  • % purchases from existing buyers
  • % sales from existing shops
If both these numbers are high, it indicates buyers prefer to purchase products from known sellers
 
Hypothesis 2:  The local ads are not relevant. To validate this issue, we need to check -
CTR for the new ads
CTR to Purchase conversion rate
If both of these is low, it indicates that the local ads are not helpful in getting quality leads/ shops and hence people have stopped clicking on these ads.
 
Hypothesis 3: Was there any change in the UI or algo related to showing ads, due to which either the relevant ads are not coming at the top or the buyers are not able to see it as part of the discovery flow?
 
Hypothesis 4: Are small businesses reducing their ad spends, due to which there are lesser ads than before
To validate this we need to know, whether there has been an increase in the prices recently which discouraged these businesses from putting newer ads.
 
So, as next steps, 
 
Short term -
Revert any product changes if done
Positioning of ads needs to improved to integrate them within the discovery flow
 
Long term -
Interview users to undestand their view on relevance of these ads and generate insights from that which can driver further product improvements
Educate local businesses about the RoI of ads and how can they drive more adoption by improving the quality and the relevance of the ads.
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