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Netflix's subscription renewal rate is declining year over year. What hypotheses would you propose, and how would you validate them?

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Netflix's subscription renewal rate is declining year over year

  • Since when we are seeing this trend? 2 years
  • Is it specific to a certain geography? Global
  • Are we talking about any specific subscription or overall?
    • Are all the subscriptions showing similar decline (Mobile, Basic, Standard and Premium) ? All
  • If an user downgrades his subscription, then also he is a subscriber, right? Yes
  • Is the drop consistent yoy or increased ? Increased
External factors -
  • Any competitor offering at cheaper prices?
  • Any new technology advancements in the market?
  • Any politically unstable geography?
  • Any govt regulations hit country?
  • Users are finding the subscription prices higher to afford and hence leaving the app?
Internal factors -
  • Subscription renewal rate = % users who renew/ upgrade their existing subscription
    The renewal rate can come down due to users churning out of the platform because Netflix doesn't have a free subscription model
    Any app performance issues?
  • Any UI related issues?
  • Any algo related issues?
Hypothesis -
  • Users are not finding relevant content to watch and hence leaving the platform
    • Time spent per user per day on Netflix
    • Avg number of videos watched by users per session
    • Bounce off rate without watching a video
  • Users are finding the price to be higher and hence leaving the platform
    • Comparing churn rate based on pricing tier and region
  • Users are not happy with the personalisation of content or app performance issues, which makes it confusing and difficult to search the relevant content and hence leaving the platform
    • User NPS for app
    • A/B testing with recommended and current UI
  • Users are attriting to a competitor platform with better pricing and offering
    • User interviews
    • Competitor analysis
Next steps -
  • Conduct pricing analysis across tiers
  • Improve content discovery and app personalisation
  • Improve catalog fatigue
  • Competitor analysis
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First I will describe what Netflix is - 

About Netflix : 

Netflix is a video streaming platform across the globe which hosts various types of content for its users 

Than I will first start with asking clarifying questions

1. Is the renewal rate decline happening in a specific region or is it across?

If it is in a specific region we can further deep dive on that front 

If it is across the globe than we need to think of factors at a platform level which could have affected  

2. Which set of cohort has seen the decline ? 

Is it renewal rate from FTU to 1st year or 1st year to 2nd year or 2nd year to 3rd year or 3 year & above & so on .. ( Assumption - annual renewal rate is what we are looking at ) 

This is primarily to understand which type of user base is not renewing

3. Is the decline among web users or mobile app users ? 

4. What % of decline have we seen YOY ? Has the decline been consistent across years or there are variations ? 

Next I will analyze starting with external factors

1. Any new competitor which has come in recent years whose market share has increased, resulting in decline in subscription of Netflix 

2. Any new technological change which has come up which has given an alternative to the video streaming platform 

3. Any legal compliance due to which Netflix lost some of its users in some specific country or region etc. 

4. Any country which has suffered policitcal unstability due to which users from that country have stopped watching netflix 

5. Any macroeconomic reduction in the trends of spending towards streaming platform 

Than I will look at Internal factors

Lets first define renewal rate = % of people renewing subscription annually of the active user base 

1. Type of content which has been hosted on the platform vs the content which has been viewed most. 

2. Are there any specific set of users who are not renewing - movie lovers, tv shows , documenatries, etc. 

3.  Has the app installs gone down leading to reduction in the active user base 

4. Among the active user base which type of content view has gone down & if that correlates with the point 2 ( specific set of users - movie lovers,tv shows,etc. ) 

5. Are there any other metric which has been impacted apart from the renewal rate ? - Again ties back to point 3 & 4 ( user base & streaming hours ). Additionaly can look at efficacy of recommended content,etc. 

For validation of these hypothesis - 

1. Look at the past trends ( qunatitavive data ) 

2. Speak to your users ( qualitative research )

3. Send a survey to the users with your hypothesis who have not renewed  

3. Post the analysis, lets say you understand that because fiction movies content has not been hosted lately at much frequency which lead to reduction in renewal rate , Netflix can develop that type of content & target boost/advertise to those specific set of users who have not renewed. 

Thanks

Feedback are welcome

 

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Great analysis, but it would be better to present a hypothesis first and either prove or disprove your hypothesis via analysis.

For validation: better to say which relevant metrics or KPIs are applicable ratther than saying quantitavie data or research
in this case, metrics would look like:
1. Number of shows per year
2. Percentage of Price increase
3. number of cancellations per year
etc

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