Google wants to enter the space of construction technology, specifically focusing on shortening the time it takes to construct a building. How would you estimate the market size for this in the US?

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Google wants to enter the space of construction technology, specifically focusing on shortening the time it takes to construct a building. How would you estimate the market size for this in the US?

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vparam · Answer 1 · 2024-05-30T19:35:22+0000

Clarification
- Are we talking about any type of building constructions or specific areas like office buildings, residential apartments, single family home - Any type that will shortnen the process through technology
- Are we talking any size of city/ town or can I assume we are talking about just big metros as a MVP? - We could consider big metros for MVP but in future scale out to any type of cities
Main equation
- TAM = Residential constructions + Commercial constructions + Public Constructions
Breaking down the equation
- Residential constructions
  - Assumptions
    - 25% stay in single family home
    - 50% in apartments
    - 20% in shared accomdations
    - 5% homeless
  - Population of USA 300 M
    - assumption 30% live in major cities
    - 30% of 300M = 90M
  - Avg number of people in family 4
  - Average number of indiviudal in shared accomdation is also 4
    - 95% have accomodation = .95*90 = 85.5M
    - 85.5M / 4 = 21.38M
    - avrg home size = 1000sqft
    - total residential construction oppty = 21.38 billion sqft
  - Commerical constructions
    - Assumption 60% are working age and are woking in the major cities
    - 60% of 90M = .6*90 = 54M
    - assumption Avg space required for working adult = 54sqft
    - 54/54 = 1M sqft
  - Public space
    - Assumptions
      - 100 building per city
      - each building 10000 sqft
      - total = 100*10000 = 1M sqft
Main equation calculation
- = 21.38 B +0.001 +0.001 = 21.382 B sqft
Sanity check
- 21.382/90M = 238 Million population

Tarun Kumar · Answer 2 · 2023-10-19T19:47:36+0000

Few clarifying questions here,

What's the objective here? I understand Google wants to enter into the construction business to reduce time, but what is the goal for doing the same?
Would like to understand how it relates to Google's mission of "Organizing all the information available across the world."
What kind of construction is Google looking to get into for instance there could be following
- Plants or Manufacturing units
- Warehouses
- Road
- Railways
- Housing societies, Individual homes
- Office buildings, Corporate parks, Malls
- Institutions like colleges, hospitals, schools
- Civil institutions like Court, Police stations
- Public infrastructure like Railway stations, Airports,
For the sake of discussion, I'd like to focus on India as a geography

Answer from the Interviewer, we are looking to improve the speed of construction while also maintaining the synergies b/w Google's mission and capabilities, leveraging it for new business altogether.

India is growing economy that means there is a massive need for infrastructure and at a massive pace and scale. The need for smart infrastructure to work solidify India's position as Tech giant in 21st Century.

Considering these objectives, I think it makes sense to start with something narrow like creating institutions, schools, libraries, colleges, offices and tech parks. Here they can foster the learning and growth while also providing a robust ecosystem for the growth of economy.

Check with interviewer on this, they give you a go ahead.

Moving ahead, I'd like to start by listing down some challenges in the construction cycle for the future

Based on the design dimensions, correctly estimate the raw materials that would be required for example Cement, Sand, Rods, Water, Electric cables, and so on
The planning stage estimates the cost accurately based on raw material
Estimate the manual help needed beforehand
Estimate and book the necessary machinery required beforehand e.g., crane, cement mixer etc
Estimate the large pieces that are required are delivered on time and have no quality issues
While building ensure quality and reduce safety hazards
Upon completion get all the certifications done

I'd like to understand which of these process or stage takes most time, as I don't have that insight into construction industry. Assuming interviewer says

Procurement and delivery of special parts take a lot of time, as these are special made to order
Necessary machinery requirement also pushes the timeline

Going ahead with these two stages, would like to understand which step here takes maximum amount of time further. For the sake of discussion let's assume it is about special made to order parts

Leverage 3D printing capabilities to build these things in-house. Going ahead Google can also use the same 3D printers to make orders and serve different construction players
Often the measurement is wrong, we can leverage AR technology, get the right measurement to the third decimal before handing it off for construction
Assuming transportation is a challenge for such parts due to safety and time it takes to ship the item, can we create a turn-key solution that creates a mini factory close to the construction site. This turn key solution is basically a full blow 3D printing factory that creates any shape or size (within reasonable range) on demand.

Check with interviewer on the same.

Would use certain metrics to understand if there is a significant change in the construction business now

Avg. time to build should decrease
- Avg. time to build special parts to decrease
- Avg. time to ship special parts to decrease
- Avg. time deliver exact specification to decrease

Summarize these points.

Looking for feedback on the same.