Estimate the number of Whatsapp chats happening in India on any given day?
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Whatsapp chat counts messages from all kinds of devices as well as the web app
Chats will have both kinds of conversations 1 to 1 and 1 to many
My approach:
No. of Whatsapp users X
Chats for one user
No. of Whatsapp users:
Population of India: 1.4 Bn
Smartphone penetration: 80%
Internet penetration: 80%
Whatsapp penetration: 90%
Whatsapp users in India: 806Mn Users
Chats for one user
= # of 1-1 chats + # of 1-many chats
# of 1-1 chats
=Whatsapp users on the contact list who needs to be contacted frequently X Avg. Daily Frequency
=5 X 4 = 20 messages
Considering the same amount of messages in the reply
Thus the total number of messages will be 40
# of 1-many chats
=Avg. Active Whatsapp groups X Avg. Daily Frequency
= 2 X 10 = 20 messages
Considering the user will reply 50% times of frequency
=2 X 10 X 50% = 10 messages
Total messages for 1-many = 30
Total chats for one user= 40 +30=70
No. of Whatsapp chats per day= 806Mn X 70 chats = 56Bn Chats
Estimate the number of Whatsapp chats happening in India on any given day?
Clarification questions:
What does it mean by whatsapp chat? Are we trying to calculate the total number of messages send/ receive.
Let’s say yess.
We have to calculate only for normal messges(non business messages).
yess
Assuming that reaction( anger/happy/sad) also can be seen as messages.
India has a population 140 cr.
Assuming that the population is evenly distributed from 0-80 years.
Assuming that 0-15 and above 65 does not use whatsapp.
remaining population = 140*50/80 =87 Cr
In which 30% have not phone or they have keypad.
Total remaining population=87*70/100= 60 Cr (approx)
Let’s say In this 60 Cr 20 % does not use whatspp. They sue other apps such as- facebook, Instagram, twitter & snapchat etc.
So total= 60*80 /100 =48 Cr
Assuming that there are 3 type of people.
1. Power user
2. Casual user
3. Occasional user
Let’s say in one minute a user sends two message and received one messages. so total messages in one minute = 3
Use | Frequency | Average time spent | Total message | Total messages set per day |
Power | Use daily | 1 hours | 60*3=180 per day | 180 |
Casual | Use twice a week | 40 minutes | 40*3= 120 Per week | 120/7=15 per day on an evrage |
Occasional | Use once a month | 80 minutes | 5*80 = 400 per month | 400/30=13 per day on an average |
Let’s say that in overall population 50% Is power user ,30% is casual user and 20% is occasional user.
Total messages = 480 *180* 50/100 + 480 * 30*15/100 + 480*20*13/100
=8640 + 2160 + 1248
= 12048 miilion messages
=12 billion messages per day.
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