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Estimate the number of Whatsapp chats happening in India on any given day?

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Assumption:

Whatsapp chat counts messages from all kinds of devices as well as the web app

Chats will have both kinds of conversations 1 to 1 and 1 to many

 

My approach:

No. of Whatsapp users X

Chats for one user

 

No. of Whatsapp users:

Population of India: 1.4 Bn

Smartphone penetration: 80%

Internet penetration: 80%

Whatsapp penetration: 90%

 

Whatsapp users in India: 806Mn Users

 

Chats for one user

= # of 1-1 chats + # of 1-many chats

 

# of 1-1 chats

=Whatsapp users on the contact list who needs to be contacted frequently X Avg. Daily Frequency

=5 X 4 = 20 messages

Considering the same amount of messages in the reply

Thus the total number of messages will be 40

 

# of 1-many chats

=Avg. Active Whatsapp groups X Avg. Daily Frequency

= 2 X 10 = 20 messages

Considering the user will reply 50% times of frequency

=2 X 10 X 50% = 10 messages

Total messages for 1-many = 30

 

Total chats for one user= 40 +30=70

 

No. of Whatsapp chats per day= 806Mn X 70 chats = 56Bn Chats
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I had a go at this before reading your answer and I would have assumed chats meant a chat thread not the count of messages. So answer was significantly lower than yours.

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Estimate the number of Whatsapp chats happening in India on any given day?

Clarification questions:

What does it mean by whatsapp chat? Are we trying to calculate the total number of messages send/ receive.

Let’s say yess.

We have to calculate only for normal messges(non business messages).

yess

Assuming that reaction( anger/happy/sad) also can be seen as messages.

India has a population 140 cr.

Assuming that the population is evenly distributed from 0-80 years.

Assuming that 0-15 and above 65 does not use whatsapp.

remaining population = 140*50/80 =87 Cr

In which 30% have not phone or they have keypad.

Total remaining population=87*70/100= 60 Cr (approx)

Let’s say In this 60 Cr 20 % does not use whatspp. They sue other apps such as- facebook, Instagram, twitter & snapchat etc.

So  total= 60*80  /100 =48 Cr

Assuming that there are 3 type of people.

 1. Power user

 2. Casual user

 3. Occasional user

 

Let’s say in one minute a user sends two message and received one messages. so total messages in one minute = 3 

 

Use

Frequency

Average time spent

Total message

Total messages set per day

Power

Use daily

1 hours

60*3=180

 per day

180

Casual

Use twice a week

40 minutes

40*3= 120

Per week

120/7=15 per day on an evrage

Occasional

Use once a month

80 minutes

5*80 = 400 per month

400/30=13 per day on an average

 

 

Let’s say that in overall population 50% Is power user ,30% is casual user and 20% is occasional user.

Total messages = 480 *180* 50/100  +  480 * 30*15/100  + 480*20*13/100

                              =8640 + 2160 +  1248

                              =  12048 miilion messages

                             =12 billion messages per day.

 

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