You’re the PM for instagram feed and you see MAU went down 20%. Why did this go down?

Qualifying Questions:

What is the time frame of drop?

Assumed Answer: Over a Month (Month on Month)

What is the trajectory of drop? Is it cliff drop or is it gradual drop

Assumed Answer: Gradual

Region of drop:

Assumed Answer: Drop across all regions

Platform of drop (Android, iOS, mweb, Desktop)

Assumed Answer: All platforms

Any time of day drop pattern ?

Assumed Answer: No pattern in time of day, across all time of day drop.

Answer: Thanks for the clarifications:

Instagram Mission:

Give people the power to build community and bring the world closer together.

Way of Measuring MAU has changed? 

Answer: No

Tracking of MAU is working fine?

Answer: Yes

Contributers to total MAU:

New Users: Has New Users Dropped? 

Assumed Answer = Same as the previous month

Returning User: (rhetorical question) Has Returning User Dropped?

Assumed Answer: Yes, returning users have dropped.

Contributors to Returning Users:

Users returning from Notifications

Users returning from App Icon/Url type in browser

Users returning from third party referrals

User returning from other sources than above

Q- Which one of the above sources have fallen in MoM?

Assumed Answer:  Users returning from App Icon/Url type in browser has fallen. 

Probable Reasons for drop in returning users from App Icon/Url type in browser:

1) Impact of poor engagement of sub-products in instagram i.e Newsfeed, Reels etc. Returning users/retention is a  result of engaged users and if over engagement goes down then eventually retention will be impacted.

Assumed Answer: Yes, Some product in Instagram are under performing in terms of engagement.

2) Poor performance of app i.e  app crashes often leading to less returning users

Assumed Answer: App Performance is stable

3) External Factors: 

      a) BAD PR.

      b) Regulatory conditions stopping people to use the product

     c) Competition apps being launched or launching new features which are taking away users.

Assumed Answer: None of the above external factors are responsible.

Probable Reasons for drop in engagement of Instagram sub-products i.e Feed and Reels:

** Assuming only 2 products are there on Instagram, feed, and reels.

Which of the 2 products have dropped?

Assumed Answer: Reels engagement has dropped but Feed engagement has grown marginally.

Reasons for drop in engagement of Reels:

**Definition of Reels - 30 secs videos with which users can interact (comment, reaction, share etc)

Did the layout of the Reels change or discovery within Instagram app change?

Assumed answer: No

Did the number of reels created reduced in MoM?

Assumed Answer: Its roughly the same as previous month.

Only possible reason which can bring about a big drop in engagement hence big drop in returning users is Algorithm.

Did the total number of reel views per user increased over Month?

Assumed Answer: No, it has dropped by 35%

Possible Reason from Drop: Algo changes in reels which has caused drop in retention in Reels product hence having an impact on long term metric of MAU.