How many mobile phones are there in the world?
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in Estimation by (33 points) | 194 views

1 Answer

+1 vote

To solve this problem, let's divide this problem into 2 parts

  • phones with people out there in the world
    • phone people 
      • using them as primary device (x)
      • using them as secondary device (y) 
    • old phone
      • lying around at there home (z)
    • Wasted phone
      • dumped (a)
  • phones getting manufactured by companies 
    • phones in shops - offline stores (b)
    • phones in warehouses (c)

 

Calculating x

  • Total population in world - 700 cr
    • Assuming 90% of people in the world (today) has 1 phone - smartphone or feature phone (due to tech innovation, cost reduction) = 630 cr

Calculating y

  • Who will keep >=2 phones?
    • Assumption - People who are working or business class will have the need (but not all will keep >=2 phones) ~ 20% of total world population
    • Assume only 10% of working class will only keep >=2 phones
    • 20% * 10% * 700 cr = 12cr (approx)

 

Calculating z

  • Due to tech innovation a lot of users will be switching to new phones; hence making the old phone either exchanged or buying a completely new phone
    • High income users will switch to new phones frequently and assuming they do it in on an average of 3 years = 10% * (1/3) * 630 = 20 cr approx 

 

Calculating a

  • Assuming phones break or go wasted as they go old. 
    • 1% of phones gets lost = 1% * 630 = 6.3cr approx

Calculating b

  • Phones in shop = assume 10,000 cities in world (top) * 1000 shops each keeping phone (on average) * 50 phones / shop = 50cr

 

Calculating c

  • Phones in warehouse =  Assume 20 phone manufacturers * 100,000 phones per day * 180 day (6 month inventory management) = 40cr (approx)

 

Total = 630 + 12+ 20 + 6.3 + 50 + 40   ~750cr 

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